BEEF

The market is steady. Total beef production for last week was up 2.8% versus the prior week and up 3.0% compared to the same week last year. Year to date, total production is down 2.8% compared to the same period last year. Total headcount for last week was 620,000 as compared to 625,000 for the same week last year. Year to date, the total headcount is 9.54 million head which is down 4.8% from last year. Live weights for last week were up 1 lb. versus the prior week and up 46 lbs. from the same week last year. Beef cutout values have been pushed lower since the beginning of April but are now showing signs of stabilizing. Last week, it was reported that the USDA beef retail feature index fell to its lowest level in the last six weeks. The months of May and June tend to have more beef features which has a tendency to improve demand. On the supply side, slaughter continues to exceed the 600K head per week benchmark which provides a better balance of supply. Dressed weights are up versus last year with steer weights up 27 lbs. and heifers up 21 lbs. After the recent news surrounding human avian flu and dairy cattle, cattle futures are starting to firm up for the summer months led by the strength of fed cattle prices. The category continues to be a bit unsettled as the beef industry is dealing with higher retail prices, avian flu news, and inconsistent supply which may take many months to play out.

Grinds – The market is steady to firmer. Demand from retail and foodservice is starting to pick up which is seasonally expected. Availability is improving as higher steer weights add trimmings to the marketplace. Trade levels on 73% and 81% grinds have strong undertones.

Loins – The market is unsettled. Retail and food service business is moderate, and the supply side continues to be the variable factor affecting this category. Added supply over the last few weeks has improved availability. Trade levels were correcting downward but have flattened out over the last week.

Rounds – The market is steady. Demand remains moderate with additional feature activity expected in the coming month. Availability varies by supplier with some excess being shown. Market levels are moving sideways.

Chucks – The market is steady to weaker. Demand was slow to start the month but is showing signs of improvement. Cutout values on chuck rolls have receded to year ago levels. Supply varies by packer with some excess. Trade levels continue to have soft undertone.

Ribs – The market is steady. The volume from the retail and foodservice channels is showing some renewed vigor. Feature activity tends to pick up in May and demand is picking up slightly. With the recent uptick in production, supply has improved and varies by supplier. Trade levels are mostly flat.

PORK    The market is steady. Total pork production for last week was up 0.7% versus the prior week and up 1.3% compared to the same week last year. Total headcount for last week was 2,421,000 as compared to 2,370,000 for the same week last year. Live weights for last week were even at 0 lbs. compared to the prior week and down 2 lbs. versus the same week last year. Demand for pork continues to be extremely strong due to higher retails from the beef category. As consumers shop for affordable proteins, the pork category continues to be the beneficiary. Cutout values this week are approximately 24% higher than same week last year. Export business to Mexico and the Pacific Rim remains highly robust. On the production side demand, slaughter levels were limited for two weeks around Easter and are expected to increase in mid to late April. Spot trading on bellies and large hams is highly active as processors assess their future needs. Cutout values remain strong going into April.

Bellies – The market is unsettled. Demand from retail and foodservice is moderate to good with peak bacon seasonality right around the corner. Supply varies greatly by raw material supplier. Market values are trading at established ranges.

Hams – The market is steady. Demand is fair as deli business tends to pick up in April and May. Export business to Mexico is strong due to favorable exchange rates. Supply is available. Market levels are mostly flat.

Loins – The market is steady. Demand for bone-in loins is strong due to retail ads and an increase in loin deboning. Supply varies by packer with little excess being reported. Market levels on bone-in and boneless are firm.

Butts – The market is steady to firmer. Domestic demand from retail has improved since the Easter holiday. Export business to South Korea and Japan is a full-steady. Supply is limited. Spot trading is active, and the market is inching higher.

Ribs – The market is steady. Foodservice and retail business is good with solid footing going into BBQ season. Supply varies by packer and frozen inventory levels. Market levels on spareribs, back ribs, and St. Louis ribs are mostly flat.

CHICKEN                                                          

The market is steady. Total headcount for the week ending 4/6/2024 was 160,773,000 as compared to 164,108,000 for the same week last year. The average weight for last week was 6.45 lbs. as compared to 6.27 lbs. for the same week last year. Demand is currently moderate as the pent-up demand cycle from March is starting to wane a bit. Business on boneless breast is fair while tenders and wings maintain strong activity. April business is fair due to retail features and QSR promos but has flat lined from the peak demand in March. Export demand for leg quarters and whole legs is reported to be a full-steady. Weekly supply is limited due to reduced slaughter levels. Chick hatchability rates remain around 79% which is a record low. With the overall broiler slaughter down 2% YTD, supply has tightened considerably. Market levels have been trending sideways across most of the chicken categories.

WOGS – The market is steady. Retail deli and fast-food business demand is fully established and holding even. Supply is limited for the premium sizes. Market levels are moving sideways.

Tenders – The market is steady. Foodservice and QSR business for jumbo tenders is very good but has leveled out over the last two weeks. The supply of tenders remains tight due to current slaughter levels. Market levels on jumbo and select sizes are flat.

Boneless Breast – The market is steady. Demand for breast meat has been strong since the beginning of the year but has slowed a bit recently. Supply is available and spot business is more available. The market for all sizes is holding even.

Leg Quarters and Thighs – The market is steady. Export and domestic demand for leg quarters is a full-steady. Deboning business is active due to good thigh meat sales. Supply varies by plant. The market on leg quarters and thigh meat is mostly unchanged

Wings – The market is steady. Wing demand is holding strong, even with March Madness in the rearview mirror. Foodservice volume and further processing are both trending strong. Supply is tight. The market is flat across all sizes.

TURKEY

The market is steady. Total headcount for the week ending 4/6/2024 was 3,758,000 as compared to 3,185,000 for the same week last year. The average weight for last week was 30.92 lbs. as compared to 31.26 lbs. for the same week last year. Demand for whole birds and turkey parts is a full-steady. The overall booking season for whole birds has been a level trajectory. Demand for boneless breast is starting to pick up and activity on bone-in parts is a full-steady. The supply side is adequate, but HPAI concerns persist. The supply side remains vigilant on bird health heading into the warmer months.

Whole Birds – The market is steady. Over time, more booking orders are being inked on a consistent basis. The carryover of whole birds from 2023 into 2024 is being reported as higher than normal. Market levels are mostly flat and untested.

Breast Meat – The market is steady. Further processor demand for breast meat tends to pick up in the Spring and that trend is starting to kick in. Supply is available of both fresh and frozen raw material. The market is flat with spot sales testing the market at higher levels.

Wings – The market is steady. Export volume for whole wings and domestic demand for two-joint has shown some recent improvement. Supply is available and varies by supplier. Markets are fully supported.

Drums and Thigh Meat – The market is steady to firmer. Export and domestic activity for drums is fair. Thigh meat demand has picked up as seasonal business for ground turkey kicks in. Supply is available but not in excess. The market on thigh meat has strong undertones.

SEAFOOD

Gulf Shrimp – The market is unsettled. Demand for domestic Gulf Shrimp is still unsettled due to competitive pressure from the import market. Comfortable trading levels remain to been seen.

Black Tiger Shrimp – The market is firmer. Tighter supplies of Black Tiger Shrimp and improved prices on White Shrimp have alleviated downward price pressure on the Black Tiger Shrimp market.

White Shrimp – The market is firmer. Increased overseas pricing and improved movement have brought some stability back to the market. Supplies are adequate to barely adequate with moderate demand.

North American Lobster Tails – The market is steady to firmer. Prices continue to rise as stocks on allocation continue to deplete. Some suppliers report being out of stock and certain sizes are no longer being quoted. Any meaningful replacements or substitutes are still months away.

Salmon – The market is steady. The Chilean frozen fillet market is steady. Supplies are adequate with moderate demand. The European fillet market is firmer. Supplies are barely adequate with moderate to active demand.

Cod – The market is steady and mostly unchanged.

Flounder – The market is steady and mostly unchanged.

Haddock – The market is steady and mostly unchanged.

Pollock – The market is steady to firmer. Supplies are adequate with moderate demand.

Tilapia – The market is firmer. Light supply and increased costs overseas are being met with moderate demand.

Swai – The market is weaker. Supplies are fully adequate, and demand remains lackluster.

DAIRY

Cheese
The market is mixed. The CME Block market was mixed as we progressed through the week. The CME Barrel market moved weaker as we progressed through the week. Both the CME Block & Barrel market moved firmer than the prior week. Contacts note steady production schedules and comfortable inventories across the country, namely of American-type cheeses such as cheddar. According to the USDA’s latest report, some cheese plant managers note steady to lighter production schedules are in place due to weaker block cheese demand as a reason to scale back cheese production. Cheese manufacturers note demand from pizza makers has strengthened this year compared to the prior year. Foodservice demand is weaker while retail demand is steady. Export demand for cheese is steady to slower.

In Europe, milk production is strong. Sources note that larger orders are picking up following the recent holidays. According to the USDA’s latest report, European cheese manufacturers are running strong production schedules though some stakeholders report warehouse inventories are not as robust as they could be. Foodservice demand is reported to be strong while retail demand has picked up recently. Interest from export purchasers is reported as mixed.

BUTTER

The market is weaker. The butter market moved weaker as we progressed through the week. The butter market trended firmer than the prior week. Cream remains readily available for butter makers throughout the country while demand is reported as steady. Butter production is reported as steady across the country with operators running steady churning schedules. Several contacts continue to note they are working to build inventories for Q4. According to the USDA, unsalted butter continues to be sought after by customers across the country. Butter demand is reported as steady. Retail demand is strong across the nation. Foodservice demand remains flat to weaker.

EGGS

The market is fair to good. National scale accounts have kept orders at least average, with some reporting slightly above average as shelf prices remain competitive. Smaller regional chains’ orders have been below average as their shelf-life prices remain at a premium in the post-Easter period. Foodservice demand remains average to steady. Large and small distributors, with improved weather in their regions, have reported upticks in demand.

A week ago, bird flu had been a topic of discussion. As of right now, there has not been a major shift in supply in the conventional category. Currently there is a balance in supply.

Supply is available on medium and large sized shell eggs. Market levels are moving lower on medium sizes and large sizes. National weekly reports show shell egg inventory up 10.3% and breaking stock inventory down 0.8% over last week.

Demand in the egg products category is steady. Demand for liquid whole eggs and whites is steady in food manufacturing sectors. The yolks and dried markets remain stable.

FLUID MILK

The market is steady. Farm level milk production is steady to strengthening across most of the nation. State agencies and the USDA have identified an illness affecting herds in several states as Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). This was spread by the presence of diseased migratory birds among a percentage of cows in the same vicinity. According to officials, there is no threat to the public and volumes remain available to meet processors manufacturing needs. According to the USDA’s latest report, some handlers in the West indicate preliminary milk production records indicate March 2024 milk production is higher than that of March 2023. Cream availability remains ample while cream demand from manufacturers is steady for all Classes. Class II demand is steady. Class III demand is steady to weaker from hard cheese processors but gaining demand from cream cheese manufacturers. Class I bottling orders remain sluggish as educational institutions are closed for school breaks throughout various regions. Demand for all other Classes is reported as steady.

SOY OIL

The market is mixed. Soy oils have gained over 7.5% since the lows in mid-February. The past month of buying alone totaled more than 70,000 new contracts put in place. Volume buyers are taking positions as current market estimates and futures funds are locking in costs. The WASDE report from late this week spoke to a record world crop causing a sudden slight dip in soy markets.

COCOA

The cocoa market is unsettled. Due to continued weather conditions and crop diseases in Ghana and the Ivory Coast, the cost of cocoa is at an all-time high. Additionally, farmers in this area are exiting cocoa production for more lucrative crops. West Africa accounts for over 60% of global cocoa production. Cocoa futures have more than doubled since January 2024. Price increases and potential allocations could be seen as we progress through the year.

FLOUR

The flour market is mixed. It is reported that wheat prices have been up and down as we progressed through the week. The market is balancing the current ample wheat supplies with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and Russia. Across the US, crops have begun emerging from dormancy with the warmer spring temperatures. It is reported that Soft White Wheat has weaker demand from trading partners.

HONEY

The honey market is unsettled. According to Nielsen research for category reviews of the retail channel, honey sales exceeded $1 billion in 2023 showing strong dollar sales growth for the second year in a row. According to the USDA’s Honey Production Report, honey production in the U.S. was up 11% in 2023. The EU has released new regulations to combat unclear origins of honey. Clearly labeled packaging identifying the County of Origin (COO) is now required on all honey in the EU.  Recent turbulence in the Red Sea has led to additional freight surcharges as well as time for shipments with carriers looking to avoid this area by sailing around the southern tip of Africa.

RICE

The situation with parboiled rice has not improved. Lead times are increasing to 10 weeks or more with some suppliers. Maybe some good news is the most recent harvest was better than last year. Production for parboiled rice is still having difficulties keeping up with demand.

SUGAR

The market is unsettled. Availability remains limited. This year’s U.S. sugar crop came in below expectations and this is expected to put additional strain on inventories over the coming months. Allocations and longer lead times should be expected with multiple suppliers not looking to take on new business.

**Graphs represent data for the week ending April 19, 2024**