BEEF

The market is mixed. Total beef production for last week was up 14.5% versus the prior week and down 1.3% compared to the same week last year. Year to date, total production is down 0.4% compared to the same period last year. The total headcount for last week was 614,000 as compared to 638,000 for the same week last year. Year to date, the total headcount is 29.37 million head, which is down 3.6% from last year. Live weights for last week were even at 0 lbs. versus the prior week and up 30 lbs. from the same week last year. Beef demand going into the Christmas holiday is reported to be good and meeting industry expectations. Market values continue to be strong on middle meats and mostly stable on end cuts and grinds. The category is entering a timeframe where packers and customers are trying to cover holiday needs and keep inventories tight following the year-end holidays. With the increased push on middle meats, more spot buys on end meats are being noticed in the marketplace. The beef cutout is a bit mixed as middle meats are showing some strength and end meats have soft undertones. Slaughter rates continue to be lower than normal due to higher live cattle prices. Cattle futures for December overcame the 50-day moving average and were rising higher in February. Live weights per animal continue to be substantially higher on a year-over-year basis.

Grinds – The market is steady. Demand in the month of December is moderate to good. With dressed weights near all-time highs, supply has become more available. Trade levels on 73% and 81% are mostly flat and vary by packer.

Loins – The market is steady to weaker. Demand for choice product is waning a bit as retail demand slows down. Supply is available with some spot availability being shown. Market levels are experiencing some downward pressure.

Rounds – The market is steady. Demand has been strong over the last few weeks with support from the retail channel. Supply varies by packer. Values on rounds and XT insides are mixed depending on supplier availability.

Chucks – The market is steady to weaker. Retail and food service activity is fair at best. Supply is becoming more available with more movement on the open market. Trade levels on chucks and clods have soft undertones.

Ribs – The market is steady to firmer. Demand is hitting peak seasonality due to the Christmas and New Year’s holidays. Supply is limited and varies by packer. Trade levels have been moving higher on light and heavy sizes.

PORK 

The market is steady. Total pork production for last week was up 14.2% versus the prior week and down 2.9% compared to the same week last year. The total headcount for last week was 2,602,000 compared to 2,668,000 for the same week last year. Live weights for last week were even at 0 lbs. compared to the prior week and down 2 lbs. versus the same week last year. Demand is mostly static from the retail and food service channels and is reported to be good. Activity on loins, butts, and value-added ribs is strong for this time of year. Export volume to the Pacific Rim remains moderate to good. Even though the pork cutout experienced a gradual decline this Fall, the November cutout value was the highest recorded in many years. On the supply side, production is up year-over-year and above the 5-year average. Lean hog futures are showing some weakness with February values being pushed lower. Supply in the United States continues to be strong throughout the end of 2024 as pig crop statistics outpace last year. Market values in the key categories are mostly stable but have some soft undertones.

Bellies – The market is steady to weaker. Domestic demand from the retail and food service channels is fair, but higher retail prices are having an effect. Increased fresh supply and higher frozen supplies have created some excess. Primal belly values have been experiencing downward pressure.

Hams – The market is steady. Domestic demand and trading are active due to holiday volume. Export business to Mexico is strong even with concerns about exchange rate of the peso. Supply is available. Market levels on green hams are barely steady on the spot market.

Loins – The market is steady. November demand was soft, but December has shown an uptick in volume. Bone-in and boneless supply is available. Market levels on bone-in are steady while boneless values are mixed.

Butts – The market is steady. Domestic demand is strong and getting a bump in volume due to holiday business. Export business to South Korea remains strong. Supply varies by packer. Trade levels are a full-steady.

Ribs – The market is steady to weaker. Buyers continue to purchase weekly turn business with a cautious approach through the holidays. Supply varies by packer and plant. The market on spareribs is soft while St. Louis and back ribs are mostly flat.

CHICKEN

The market is steady. The total headcount for the week ending 12/7/2024 was 168,214,000 as compared to 170,069,000 for the same week last year. The average weight for last week was 6.53 lbs. as compared to 6.50 lbs. for the same week last year. Poultry demand remains active and very consistent as we near the end of the calendar year. With demand trending strong and slaughter levels tight, market levels are showing strong resilience in December. With higher-than-normal retail prices on other proteins, chicken is considered relatively affordable. Export demand remains active, which is helping support the back half of the bird. The categories of WOGS, breast meat, tenderloins, and wings are easily placed into the retail and foodservice channels. The supply side is posting consistent weekly slaughter numbers which is helping balance out the market. Market values are well supported at the current time.

WOGS – The market is steady. Retail deli and fast-food volume is active, which is keeping the premium sizes sold up. Supply on WOGS is reported to be limited with spot loads available. Market levels are firm.

Tenders – The market is steady. Food service and QSR demand are reported to be good. Supply is in balance with demand on select and jumbo product. The market is holding even on select and jumbo sizes.

Boneless Breast – The market is steady. Retail and food service demand is consistent and is better than average for this time of year. Supply is available, but easily placed on a weekly basis. The market is flat on all sizes.

Leg Quarters and Thighs – The market is steady. Domestic demand for back-half parts and boneless dark meat has been predictable and consistent. Export activity for drums and leg quarters is meeting supplier expectations. Supply is available and varies by plant. Market levels are bone-parts and dark meat are stable.

Wings – The market is steady. Food service demand is the main volume driver as post season football is soon to get underway. Supply is available but limited. The market is moving sideways on all sizes.

TURKEYThe market is steady. The total headcount for the week ending 12/7/2024 was 3,275,000 as compared to 3,948,000 for the same week last year. The average weight for last week was 33.24 lbs. as compared to 31.20 lbs. for the same week last year. The turkey category is being driven by the supply side as a result of reduced slaughter levels. Year-over-year reductions in hatchery and headcounts have put the squeeze on available whole birds and bone-in parts. Demand for turkey parts and boneless breast meat is reported to be active in combination with the holidays and further processors. Market levels are mostly flat across the main categories.

Whole Birds – The market is steady. Demand is being driven by buyers trying to get last minute loads to support holiday features. Supply is available and varies by size. Depending on the age of frozen inventory, market levels vary greatly.

Breast Meat – The market is steady. Demand is highly active with the retail deli and food service channels. Further processors are keeping the supply side adequately sold up. Frozen and fresh supplies have tightened up since October. Market levels remain firm.

Wings – The market is steady. Export business on whole wings is status quo and domestic volume on two-joint wings is adequate for this time of year. Supply is available and varies by plant. The market is mostly flat.

Drums and Thigh Meat – The market is steady. Export business for drums is highly active. Domestic demand for thigh meat is well supported by the foodservice channel. Supply is in balance with demand. The market is moving sideways.

SEAFOOD

White Shrimp – The market is steady. Some price movements have been noted on products from Latin America. Supply from Asian is available in most sizes amid steady demand. Replacement costs are holding steady.

Black Tiger Shrimp – The market is steady. Supply is tight at the point of origin with overseas sourcing limited. The cooked segment is showing some market strength.

Gulf Shrimp - The market is steady. Demand is static and has been a bit slow recently. Supply is limited which is providing some short-term market stability.

North American Lobster Tails - The market is steady and mostly unchanged. Imports from Canada into the United States increased about 21.9 percent in September and are now about 9.2 percent higher for the year.

Salmon – The market is steady. Farmed salmon is holding within established trading ranges with adequate supplies being reported from various regions of the world. Wild salmon demand is moderate. With full supply, market values are mostly flat.

Cod – The market is steady and mostly unchanged. There is a steady to firm undertone in the market. Demand is fair at the current time.

Flounder – The market is steady and mostly unchanged.

Haddock – The market is steady and mostly unchanged.

Pollock – The market is steady. Supplies are adequate with moderate demand.

Tilapia – The market is steady. The market has balanced out after the typhoon damage in the Pacific Rim. Supplies are in balance with demand.

Swai – The market is unsettled. Supplies are fully adequate while demand is consistent.

DAIRY

Cheese
The market is mixed. The CME Block market moved firmer as the week progressed. The CME Barrel market was mixed as we progressed through the week. Both markets trended firmer than the prior week. Cheese production schedules vary from steady to stronger throughout the U.S. In the East region, milk availability for Class III production is reported to be tight as Class I & II demands are pulling available milk volumes. In the Central region, milk is more available for processing and busy production paces are being noted.  Cheddar and Italian-type cheeses note that demand is steady to strong. Cheese production in the West is reported to be mixed. Due to unplanned downtime, some manufacturers are running mixed production paces. Spot milk loads are much tighter in the southwest part of the region. Retail demand for cheese is noted as strong while food service demand as mixed throughout the country. Barrel and block availability has increased and therefore prices on the CME are reflecting this. Market tones are under some bearish inclinations. Industry contacts note that domestic demand and sales are strong and that there is less cheese produced for export sales, according to the USDA’s most recent report. Demand from international buyers is steady.

European milk production is steady to weaker. Foreign type cheese demand is strong in the retail sector in terms of varietal cheeses. The food service sector notes that strengthening demand for foreign type cheeses has been observed. Southern European demand is reported as seasonally typical. According to the USDA’s most recent report, industry sources note European Union sellers have become more competitively priced compared to sellers outside the European Union. Foreign cheese stocks are on the tight end of the spectrum for spot buying. Export demand is reported as steady.

BUTTER

The butter market is weaker. The butter market moved weaker as the week progressed and trended weaker than the prior week. Demand for butter following the holiday week was mixed. Cream demand in the East region has ticked up slightly post-holiday, as multiples are conductive to butter churning and cream is abundant. Cream volumes are comparatively tighter in the southwest part of the country, cream loads are generally widely available throughout the nation. In the West, butter manufacturers convey mixed production paces. Some plant managers note wind conditions have led to power losses that caused significant unplanned downtime. Some reduced production capacity due to churn equipment projects continue to be noted. Several stakeholders indicate end-users have secured their Q4 inventory needs. Butter production paces are mixed throughout the country. In some regions, weather related power losses, churn equipment projects and the holiday season have had impacts on production schedules. Spot cream multiples returned to a similar range to the week prior to Thanksgiving. Domestic butter demand varies from steady to lighter.

EGGS

The market is good. Retail demand is good as grocers report that pre-Christmas movement is picking up. The widespread cold snap that has settled over much of the nation has kept consumers indoors, driving increased cooking and baking activities. Demand in the distribution and food service channels is good. The uptick in holiday shopping has given the market a seasonal boost. This surge in consumer activity has translated into strong performance for quick-service restaurants and other dining establishments that cater to holiday shoppers.

Market levels are moving higher on medium sizes and large sizes. National weekly reports show shell egg inventory down 1.9% and breaking stock inventory down 3.3% over last week.

Demand in the egg products category has improved. Demand for yolks is steady to firm. Demand for liquid whites has improved. The yolks and dried markets are steady to firmer as the liquid market sees heightened activity.

FLUID MILK

The market is steady. Milk production is generally noted as steady or stronger throughout the country.  In the East, contacts relay milk production is steady at the farm level. In the Central region, milk outputs are trending seasonally higher and both protein and milkfat components are flourishing week after week. Hearty feed availability and colder temperatures are working to the benefit of overall cow comfort. In the West, milk production is reported as mixed. Handlers indicate significant decreases for November 2024 milk production compared to November 2023 milk production. Some milk handlers in California convey November 2024 milk output was down compared to the prior month. Spot milk load availability is tighter in the southwest part of the country compared to the rest of the nation. Both protein and milkfat components in milk output continue to be strong across the nation. Class I, II, III and IV demands vary from strong to steady. Condensed skim milk availability and demand are both mixed. Despite recent and upcoming school holiday downtime, Class I bottling activity is bustling. Several cheesemakers have reported running busier schedules than normal in the weeks ahead of winter holiday downtime. Milk availability for cheese processors settled down after more open availability during the Thanksgiving holiday. Manufacturers convey plenty of processing capacity is available and spot milk loads are tight.

SOY OIL

The market continues to be weaker after having trended on a correction phase and approached the 200-day moving average. The USDA reports show upcoming higher than expected soybean acreage and yield. Despite recent activity, there is still a bearish undertone to futures, and it is keeping the market lower than expected.

COCOA

The cocoa market is unsettled. Recent reports of heavy rain in West Africa led to several cocoa buds failing to thrive on the trees and thus pushed cocoa prices sharply higher. The crop quality has also recently been affected by disease and flooded fields in various areas on the Ivory Coast. Ghana’s 2023/2024 cocoa harvest sank to a 23-year low due to bad weather and crop diseases. The 2024/2025 cocoa harvest in Ghana began in October. According to the National Confectioners Association, it was reported that North American cocoa grindings rose by 12% in Q3 while the European Cocoa Associations grindings fell by 3%. Decreasing global cocoa stockpiles are the cause for bullish prices in the market. Cocoa inventories held in US ports have been trending lower for over a year and fell to a 19-year low this past week.

GLOVES

Heading into Q4 of 2024, costs for nitrile butadiene rubber (NBR), the primary raw material in manufacturing nitrile gloves, continue to slowly increase every month. In the summer of ’24, costs had risen approximately 20%. Conversely, costs for natural rubber latex and polyvinyl chloride are on the way down. Considering that nitrile is currently the most popular material for single-use gloves, buyers should be prepared for nitrile gloves to cost more in Q1 of 2025.

There will be further changes ahead with upcoming U.S. tariffs on Chinese disposable glove imports. The U.S. trade representative recently announced that tariffs on medical and surgical gloves from China will rise to 50% in 2025 and 100% in 2026. This will likely push all nitrile prices higher.

The country will also be keeping a close eye on the ILA port strike situation. The current agreement is in place through January 15th, 2025. Further negotiations will ensue at the beginning of the new year, with the biggest point of contention being port automation and labor efficiency.

HONEY

The honey market is steady. Organic honey from Brazil is expected to be tight through mid-2025 as price increases and logistics challenges plague the market. Continued turbulence in the Red Sea is contributing to additional freight surcharges on shipments. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, the petition from Vietnam to be considered a market economy was rejected and existing anti-dumping rates remain in place. Consumer demand for honey in both the retail and food service segments is strong.

IMPORTS

Canned Pineapple – A limited supply of canned pineapple and pineapple juice concentrate (PJC) is being reported. There is a shortage of these two commodities stemming from crop issues in Thailand over the last five years. In addition, Indonesia and the Philippines have been challenged since 2023 due to the El Niño weather event.

The Indonesian crop in 2023 decreased by 10% and is expected to be below the 600,000 metric ton benchmark. The Philippines’ crop was also affected by El Niño last year and was reported to be down 10% year-over-year. The production in Indonesia is 20% below usual volumes.   

In the Philippines, a production shortfall of 15 to 20% is creating additional constraints.  Markets are reacting to reports that the southeastern pineapple crop is not projected to recover anytime soon which is causing product prices to be pressured higher.

SPICES

The overall crop production for Black Pepper & White Pepper, in all producing countries, has again fallen from previous crop size. There is not a sufficient volume of pepper being grown and harvested this year to meet worldwide demand. Many users were counting on Brazil to help supplement this shortfall; however, the current crop harvest is only 45-55% of their normal harvest. One region was affected by flooding, and then a lack of rain in the other. Labor has also contributed to the lack of pepper production. The Vietnamese farmers felt they were underpaid in recent years and have switched to more lucrative, less controlled markets such as produce. During this conversion, pepper vines were neglected, and many have become dormant. Even if vines were replanted now, it would take three growing cycles before they start to produce volume.

Garlic from China has been trading within a tight range driven by internal demand. Herbs from Turkey and Egypt are starting to increase due primarily to quality issues. Oregano, Basil and some types of Parsley are held higher than normal driven by short crops.

SUGAR

The sugar market is mixed. According to the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the 2024/25 sugar ratio is reduced from the prior month by 2.6% amid reported higher use. Beet sugar production and cane sugar production out of Louisiana are reduced due to sugar outputs counted in early fiscal 2023/24 as well as lower yields reported by the USDA. Warm weather in sugar beet growing areas poses the risk for lower quality beets. A few regions that grow sugar beets are in areas experiencing drought and/or inconsistent weather patterns normally seen this time of year. According to the November National Agricultural Service Statistics report, the downward revisions on cane sugar out of Louisiana are due in part to the Category 2 hurricane that hit the state in early September, bringing heavy rains that saturated the soil and strong winds that flattened stalks. Supply is reported to be down domestically though production is meeting current demand. Domestic production of sugar has compensated for the downward revisions on imports.

WHEAT

The wheat market is mixed. Wheat markets have been somewhat quiet recently. According to the USDA, cumulative U.S. export sales are well ahead of the same point last year. Recent cold weather in prime growing regions may have an impact on wheat emergence. On a global scale, Russia’s wheat crop has faced difficult obstacles due to dry conditions for much of 2024. Approximately 37% of the Russian wheat crop is in poor condition versus the 4% of the crop in poor condition this time last year. The EU is still forecasted to be the world’s second largest exporter, despite its historically low production this year. Canada and Australia are forecasted to have larger crops and exports year over year. Wheat exports from the U.S. are expected to remain as the fifth largest supplier in the world.

**Graphs represent data for the week ending December 6, 2024**