BEEF

The market is steady to firmer. Total beef production for last week was down 4.4% versus the prior week and down 2.9% compared to the same week last year. Year to date, total production is down 2.4% compared to the same period last year. The total headcount for last week was 560,000, as compared to 593,000 for the same week last year. Year to date, the total headcount is 6.67 million head, which is down 6.3% from last year. Live weights for last week were down 4 lb. versus the prior week and up 31 lbs. from the same week last year. Live cattle futures continue to hold firm and remain at record highs. Futures for April, June, and August have strong undertones and packers have to determine how much exposure they are willing to handle. Supply continues to be tight with many suppliers moving to a 4-day work week. Shortages continue to be reported with substitutions of select and choice product becoming more common. Recent tariff news has the industry in a wait-and-see approach on what develops. Beef demand for the first two weeks of March is light but limited supply is keeping the industry in balance. The seasonal lift expected this time of year continues to be stifled with inconsistent weather and higher retail prices. Current demand is clearing supply adequately and shortages may continue to be a problem. With the relatively high costs of beef, the spread between choice and select grades is narrow. Market levels on boxed beef are holding within established ranges with buyers and sellers in a bit of a neutral position.

Grinds – The market is steady. Demand from retail and foodservice was on the rise but has flatlined in recent weeks. Imported trim from Australia and Brazile is helping the supply side meet demand. Trade levels on 73% and 81% grinds are holding firm.

Loins – The market is steady to firmer. Retail and foodservice volumes firmed up in early March and is showing strength. Supply is tight on choice and select grades. Market levels have been pressured higher.

Rounds – The market is steady. Volume on inside cuts has been up and down due to irregular retail promotion cycles. Supply on insides and denuded product varies by packer. Market values are stable and firm.

Chucks – The market is steady to firmer. Retail demand improved in March due to some feature activity. With some packers using chucks and clods in grinding operations, overall demand has picked up. Supply varies by packer and available grade. Trade levels on chucks, clods, and XT product have been trending higher.

Ribs – The market is steady to firmer. Outdoor grilling is starting to kick in. Demand is on the rise and supply is getting squeezed. Availability is extremely tight. Market levels are showing strength even during the Lenten season.

PORK

The market is steady. Total pork production for last week was down 3.4% versus the prior week and down 3.5% compared to the same week last year. The total headcount for last week was 2,428,000 compared to 2,521,000 for the same week last year. Live weights for last week were even at 0 lbs. compared to the prior week and even at 0 lbs. versus the same week last year. Current demand is moderate to good even though we are in the Lenten season. The pork cutout showed some weakness around the start of Lent but has firmed up over the last couple of weeks. With relatively high prices on beef cuts, retail features on bone-in and boneless pork are giving added momentum to the category. With the port strike averted, export demand has resumed to traditional levels, but tariff issues continue to have industry participants concerned. With the United States exporting about 25% of its pork production, potential tariffs are being watched by suppliers and foreign countries alike. Lean hog futures for April continue to have strong undertones. Market values on loins, butts, and ribs are holding within established ranges as consumer demand shows some improvement.

Bellies – The market is steady. Demand from retail is moderate and foodservice is starting to pick up with QSR business. Supply is available but not in excess. Primal belly values are trading within established ranges.

Hams – The market is steady. Domestic demand is good with Easter Holiday features. Further processor business will shift to deli meats in the near future. Export demand to Mexico has been strong in support of Easter. Supply is available. Market levels on green hams are flat.

Loins – The market is steady. Demand for bone-in product is a full-steady due to retail features and improved outdoor grilling. Boneless loin volume is active in lite of tariffs that may be imposed. Supply is available. Market on bone-in and boneless loins has strong undertones.

Butts – The market is steady. Bone-in demand from retail and foodservice is good for this time of year. Export demand from South Korea continues to be steadfast. Trade levels have firmed up over the last week.

Ribs – The market is steady. March demand is meeting industry expectations. Freezer supplies for the summer grilling season are reported to be adequate. Supply varies by packer and plant. The market on spareribs, St. Louis Ribs, and back ribs is holding within established ranges.

CHICKEN

The market is firmer. The total headcount for the week ending 3/22/2025 was 167,017,000 as compared to 161,980,000 for the same week last year. The average weight for last week was 6.50 lbs. as compared to 6.44 lbs. for the same week last year. Demand for chicken has been on the rise since early February and is not showing any signs of slowing down. As costs for other proteins are hitting record highs, consumers are turning to chicken as their go-to protein. Export demand to the Pacific Rim is reported to be fair and meeting industry expectations. The categories of WOGS, breast meat, tenderloins, and thigh meat continue to show strength. Conversely, wing demand for March Madness has been extremely soft and the category has corrected downward. The supply side is posting consistent slaughter numbers, but hatchability remains a problem. With instances of HPAI being reported in the news, some export restrictions are being implemented. Demand is extremely vibrant, and market levels are being tested higher across many categories.

WOGS – The market is steady. Retail deli and fast-food demand is on the rise and tends to increase in the Springtime. Supply is tight on the premium sizes as well as cutting stock WOGS. Market levels were on the rise but have flatlined.

Tenders – The market is steady to firmer. Foodservice and QSR business are the consistent drivers of the category. With strong demand from foodservice, custom portioning is extremely robust. Supply is tight on select and jumbo product. The market on select tender is flat while jumbo products have been moving higher.

Boneless Breast – The market is firmer. Retail and foodservice demand continues to rise as a result of increased feature activity. With higher price points on competing proteins, boneless breasts have become the go-to feature item. Supply has tightened up quickly. The market on all sizes continues to move higher on a daily basis.

Leg Quarters and Thighs – The market is steady to firmer. Domestic demand for leg quarters is static, but thigh meat is trending strong in the foodservice channel. Export business on whole legs has picked up in recent weeks. Supply is available and varies by plant. Market levels on back-half parts are flat while boneless thigh meat is moving higher.

Wings – The market is steady. March Madness demand has been extremely soft and is underperforming industry expectations. Higher menu costs have limited overall volume in the foodservice channel. Supply was in excess but has tightened up recently. The market on all sizes has stabilized for the time being.

TURKEY

The market is steady. The total headcount for the week ending 3/22/2025 was 3,382,000 as compared to 3,791,000 for the same week last year. The average weight for last week was 32.90 lbs. as compared to 31.67 lbs. for the same week last year. The current state of the turkey category revolves around weekly supply and reduced slaughter numbers being reported. Recent slaughter data shows the number of turkeys processed year to date is down 10% from last year, which was already at an all-time record low. With recent announcements of plant closures, current supply is tight. Due to limited supply, asking prices are on the rise and shortages are becoming more common. Demand for turkey parts is moderate and business on boneless breast meat is extremely strong due to a seasonal uptick in deli business. Market levels were on the rise but have levelled off over the last week.

Whole Birds – The market is steady. As the booking season progressed, customer orders being to flow in later than anticipated. Available supply has gone from excess to almost sold out in the last 60 days. Market levels were being pushed higher but have flattened out.

Breast Meat – The market is firmer. Seasonal demand from retail deli and foodservice is in full swing. Fresh and frozen supply is scarce on the spot market. Market levels continue to be tested higher.

Wings – The market is steady. Export business on whole wings is fair and domestic volume on two-joint wings is adequate. Supply has gotten squeezed by limited slaughter numbers. The market on Tom size wings is static.

Drums and Thigh Meat – The market is steady. Export business for drums is moderate to good. Demand for thigh meat is well supported by retail, foodservice, and further processing. Supply is tight on parts and thigh meat. The market on drums and thigh meat is holding firm.

SEAFOOD

White Shrimp – The market is unsettled. There are reports of downward pressure and price reductions, though current market ranges hold steady.

Black Tiger Shrimp – The market is steady. Demand is moderate to good and pricing levels are holding firm. Availability is tight on the premium sizes.

Gulf Shrimp – The market is firmer. Supplies are barely adequate to adequate while maintaining a firm undertone. Upward movement has been reported.

North American Lobster Tails – The market is steady and mostly unchanged. The bulk of trading continues to occur within previously established levels.

Salmon – The market is unsettled. Farmed salmon is unsettled with pricing influenced by sellers’ supply positions. There are reports of offers above and below the current range. Wild salmon demand is moderate to firmer. West coast whole fish remains unquoted due to inadequate supply. Europe is reporting a steady to weaker market. Demand is moderate, while supply ranges from adequate to fully adequate. Chilean whole fish market is steady to firmer. Supply is barely adequate with moderate to fair demand.

Cod – The market is firmer. There is a steady to firm undertone in the market. Demand has improved, while supplies have tightened.

Flounder – The market is steady and mostly unchanged.

Haddock – The market is firmer. There is a steady to firm undertone in the market. Demand has improved, while supplies have tightened.

Pollock – The market is steady. Supplies are adequate with moderate demand.

Tilapia – The market is unsettled while maintaining a firm undertone.

Swai – The market is steady and mostly unchanged.

Scallops – The market is steady to firmer. Supply is barely adequate, particularly for large sizes. Demand remains lackluster. However, there are reports of offers being fulfilled above and below the current range.

DAIRY

Cheese
The market is mixed.  Both the CME Block & Barrel markets were mixed as the week progressed. Both markets trended firmer than the prior week.

Special Note: The USDA has released their final ruling announcing changes to the Federal Milk Marketing Order system. As part of these changes, the Barrel Market will be eliminated from pricing effective June 1st, 2025. The final rule eliminates barrels from the Dairy Products Mandatory Reporting Program and will rely solely on the 40-pound block cheddar cheese price to determine the monthly average cheese prices.

Seasonal milk outputs at the farm level are growing around the country. As such, cheese production is trending steady to stronger in all regions. In the East, cheese production is active as seasonal increases in milk outputs are filling the cheese vats. In some cases, cheesemakers note cheese inventories are growing. Contacts also note cheese demand is better than last year. In the Central region, cheese markets have faced pressure in recent weeks. Global trading hurdles are causing concerns about keeping cheese within the country. Domestic demand is in line with seasonal expectations. In the West, spot demand for Class III milk is steady. Milk output is noted to be increasing in the region. Spot loads of cheese are available, but some varieties are difficult to find. Demand from the retail sector is steady. Foodservice demand is noted to be quiet. According to the USDA’s latest report, cheese makers are hoping the spring holidays and warm weather will lead to increased grilling and restaurant sales to increase domestic cheese consumption.

European milk production is strengthening though volumes vary by country. Cheesemakers note outputs are steady to stronger. Demand for foreign type cheese is strong. Contacts note lighter foodservice demand in recent weeks. Spot loads of foreign type cheese are snug though inventories are available to meet demands. In Europe, export cheese demand is steady to lighter.

BUTTER

The market is mixed. The butter market was mixed as the week progressed. The butter market trended firmer than the prior week. Cream is readily available across the nation. Butter makers are actively churning throughout the country. Butter inventories are noted to be growing as some regions are actively building inventory for later in the year. In the East, butter churns are active as cream is readily available in the region. Some butter makers note they have processing capacity for the contracted cream but not room for additional loads. Butter inventories are noted to be growing as processors are building supply ahead of spring holidays as well as demand later in the year. Butter demand has surged ahead of seasonal holiday needs in both the retail and foodservice sector in the Central region. Churning is active across the region as cream availability is in line with processing. In the West, cream is available while demand is mixed. Churning is active in the region and manufacturers report outputs are increasing seasonally. Spot loads of salted butter are ample while unsalted butter inventories are tight. According to the USDA’s latest report, contacts in all regions report strong demand for butter from the retail sector. Butter demand for the foodservice sector is reported to be soft. Butter demand, overall, is noted to be mixed. Domestic butter demand is beginning to emerge from a seasonal lull, according to the USDA’s latest report.

EGGS

The market is improved. Retail egg demand in the U.S. is improving as lower prices, promotions, and Easter preparations encourage consumers to restock. Previously established high prices have eased, making eggs more accessible. Distribution demand remains limited, but improving end-buyer interest has encouraged operators to rebuild inventories, driving prices higher. Export demand is high, driven by Canadian buyers across various pack types, while U.S. imports remain strong but restricted to breaking stock.

Market levels are unsettled for medium and large sizes. National weekly reports show shell egg inventory up 1.1% and breaking stock inventory down 1.6% over last week.

Demand in the egg products category is steady. The liquid egg market remains stable with limited activity, while the dried market holds steady. Some processors entertain minor price negotiations, especially for long-term deals, but others maintain or exceed current rates.

FLUID MILK

The market is strong. Milk production across the country is progressing toward spring flush with strong output levels. In the East, increasing milk outputs continue their spring trend. In the Northeast, contacts note that the milk shed is balanced with demand. Demand from Class II, III and IV is steady. Milk outputs in the mid-Atlantic, Southeast and Florida are seasonally increasing. Cream handlers note that supply is abundant though they are able to find homes for the product. Ice cream and other Class II manufacturing is active, according to the USDA’s latest report. Butter churns in the region are active. In the Central region, milk production continues to increase, despite recent weather wintery conditions. Milk handlers note that milkfat components have shifted lower, however, they remain above typical levels for late March. In California, contacts note year over year output numbers are below those from 2024. However, monthly output levels are increasing. Milk availability ranges from somewhat open to tight in the Western region, according to the USDA. Despite these variances, milkfat and protein levels are robust in the region. In the Pacific Northwest, milk outputs have reported to be somewhat steady. Plant downtime in the region continues to keep suppliers busy readjusting schedules and routing. Cream remains widely available. Milk availability is in good balance with processing needs. Class I demand nationwide is mixed. Demand from all other Classes is steady.

OIL

Soy Oil

Soy Oil

 CBOT soybean oil futures were mixed but firmed up at weeks end.  Weekly soybean oil exports for the 2025 marketing year are 5.7% higher than the USDA's current forecast. This week’s export data suggests that the USDA will likely need to adjust its export forecast higher. In doing so, they may also reduce fuel use to maintain reasonable ending stock levels and align with new demand estimates.  Recent data indicates that soybean oil use into biofuel has slowed due to seasonal factors as well as poor biofuel processing margins. An EPA report released this week showed February D4 RIN generation from biodiesel and renewable diesel dropped 37% versus prior year which implies lower soybean oil use for biofuel production.

On the global front, China's soybean imports from the U.S. surged by 84% in the first two months of 2025, signaling robust demand. Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing well, with 80% of the crop already harvested and production estimates stabilizing at a record yield. This strong harvest pace is exerting downward pressure on soybean prices as Brazil is gearing up to re-enter the export space, which could limit potential upward movement in the market as Brazil takes market share from the U.S.

Given these developments, soybean oil futures could remain under pressure with key uncertainties around policy and production influencing short-term outlooks. Additionally, demand for soybean oil remains uncertain due to the ongoing complexities surrounding U.S. biofuel mandates and tax credits and subsidies, all of which are limiting future market engagement.

Canola Oil

ICE canola futures finished lower on Thursday and Friday as China’s implementation of a 100% tariff on Canadian canola products went live. The impact on Canadian exports will likely be substantial since China imports nearly 2 million metric tons of Canadian canola meal annually. With U.S. import tariffs on Canadian products looming on April 2nd, canola meal exports could face even more headwinds which could further pressure prices.

Palm Oil

The palm oil market closed lower last Friday, marking its second consecutive weekly decline. Production has been lackluster in both Malaysia and Indonesia, with Malaysian palm exports falling by 7-10% for the first half of March. March exports are on track to finish below 1 million metric tons, a level not seen in two decades. Demand for palm oil remains weak due to its relatively high price compared to alternative oils like soybean, which is cheaper into key markets such as India. Indonesia's slow progress on the switch to B40 biofuel, hindered by the high cost of implementation, could release over 1 million metric tons of palm oil into the market if fully delayed.

COCOA

The cocoa market is unsettled. Rising costs of cocoa are expected to increase the financial burden on chocolate producers and consumers. Supply issues for cocoa have been exacerbated by long lasting structural problems within the industry as seen in crop diseases and low wages paid to farmers. Potential price volatility is expected due to financial pressure on this market. Price increases on cocoa and any products produced with cocoa should be expected throughout the year.

DRIED FRUIT & NUT INDUSTRY

The nut markets have faced several weather-related challenges that have impacted production.

Pecans: In Texas, heavy rainfall combined with drought contributed to mixed outcomes for pecan yields and quality. According to the University of Georgia and Land IQ, the crop of Pecans in Georgia, home to some of the oldest orchards, suffered the greatest amount of loss from Hurricane Helene last fall. Sources note it will take 8-10 years to recover this crop. Demand for pecans domestically is robust. Demand internationally is showing significant growth.

Walnuts: The Walnut industry is noting prices have rebounded from historic lows in 2024 with record supply available. Demand for walnuts remains strong domestically due to their health benefits and versatile uses. Global consumption of walnuts continues to rise.

Cashews: The cashew market has seen several supply chain disruptions due to production declines and logistical costs. Demand for cashews remains strong amongst consumers globally.

Almonds: Demand for almonds continues to be strong, with sources noting a 5.7% year over year increase in almond shipments.

Peanuts: The crop in the US for 2024 was reported to be strong. Higher production of peanuts helped to stabilize supply over the past year. Demand is strong but has not outpaced supply.

Coconut: The coconut market is unsettled. Demand from China, Europe and the United States continues to rise. Drought conditions due to El Nino in the Philippines contributed to the quantity and quality of the coconut crop. Additionally, packaging costs and operational disruptions have contributed to record-level prices. Any impact from tariffs could further these issues. Price increases on coconuts and any products produced using coconuts should be expected throughout the year.

Cranberries: The U.S. cranberry crop in 2024 faced several challenges that impacted production. In some growing regions, early frost damaged cranberry blossoms. In Wisconsin, the leading producer of cranberries, drought conditions persisted throughout the growing season. In the Northeast, several heat waves over the summer stressed the plants and reduced the yield. That said, the overall cranberry production in 2024 was 2% higher than the prior year.

COFFEE

The coffee market is unsettled. Concerns over tariffs could result in price increases this year. Columbia is the third largest coffee-producing country in the world behind Brazil and Vietnam. Coffee prices are expected to continue soaring due to adverse weather in both Brazil and Vietnam. Drought and higher temperatures in Brazil during the fruit development and filling period caused Arabica and Robusta yields to fall below initial projections. Price increases on coffee should be expected to continue throughout 2025.

DISPOSABLES

The market is unsettled. Many suppliers are taking price increases due to imposing tariffs on imports from the countries of Mexico, Canada, and China. China is expanding their presence in the category and is a leading world exporter of aluminum and plastics. There is potential that vendors outside of China will advantageously begin raising their prices in response to this action. Recent pricing notifications are being implemented for March 2025 with more upcoming in April and May. Key categories that are being affected by these pricing actions are aluminum foil products, vinyl gloves, polypropylene gloves, polypropylene bags, and apparel.

IMPORTS

Spanish Olive Oil

Spain is the world’s largest Olive Oil producer and is reporting a higher-than-expected harvest for 2024. Consistent precipitation resulted in improved olive sizes and allowed for an early robust harvest.

Italian Olive Oil

Italy faced a less favorable growing season with severe drought and heat, which is projecting a 30% drop in crop yield and has raised concern to global supply as Italy is a major exporter and consumer of Olive Oil.

Turkish Olive Oil

Turkey has rebounded from a poor 2023 harvest to a near record crop for 2024.

Mandarin Oranges

China’s mandarin season reported low crop yields due to high temperatures and drought.  Many growers are reporting sunburning, thick skins, and larger sizes which are not suitable for canning.

Turkish mandarin production is down 25% in 2024 compared to 2023. 

Spanish growers are reporting the crop has not been adversely affected by the recent flooding in Valencia.

Pricing has firmed up in all 3 markets due to the reduction in raw material.

SUGAR

The sugar market is mixed. According to the March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the 2024/25 US sugar supply was decreased from the prior month.  Decreased imports are offsetting the increases in cane sugar production.

Cane sugar production in the U.S. is down from last month as the reduction in Florida outweighs the Louisiana increases.

Beet sugar production is on rise and has the potential of hitting a new record level if current trends continue.  Beet Sucrose Recovery has been increased meaning a higher possible yield than previously forecasted.

Mexico’s 2024/25 sugar production is lowered by 235,000 metric tons.  This reduction is primarily based on the lower estimate for sucrose recovery and lower area harvested derived from statistical analysis using data published by Mexico’s National Committee for the Sustainable Development of Sugarcane.

WHEAT

The wheat market is mixed. According to the March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks were raised 18% over last year. Moderate drought has plagued certain growing regions in the Central and Northern Plains regions and is expected to continue that pattern through the end of March. Consumer demand domestically for food products made from wheat flour is relatively stable. The global wheat outlook is for larger supplies, higher consumption, reduced trade and increased ending stocks. China’s sluggish import pace of wheat is expected to be the largest import change for the year globally. Higher supplies are being seen from Australia, Russia, Argentina, the United States, and Turkey. Tariffs from the U.S. on Canada and Mexico have been suspended until April 2nd. Reciprocal tariffs are also scheduled to begin

**Graphs represent data for the week ending March 21, 2025**