BEEF

The market is steady to weaker. Total beef production for last week was up 0.2% versus the prior week and up 0.3% compared to the same week last year. Year to date, total production is down 4.7% compared to the same period last year. The total headcount for last week was 600,000 as compared to 632,000 for the same week last year. Year to date, the total headcount is 2,674,000 head, which is down 9.0% from last year. Live weights for last week were up 1 lb. versus the prior week and up 61 lbs. from the same week last year. Live cattle futures in February, March, and April continue to show strength. Supply is extremely tight due to packers paying higher money for live cattle and adjusted to tighter production schedules. With February cattle futures reaching record highs, beef prices have the potential of exceeding 2024 levels. Beef demand is moderate to good despite higher retail prices. Current demand is enough to keep supply sold up and shortages continue to be reported. Dressed weights over the last month averaged 868 lbs. which is 3.8% above the 10-year average. Due to tight supply and relatively high costs for beef, wholesale prices are unsettled depending on supplier availability.  Market levels on middle meats and outside cuts vary depending on grade and packer availability.

Grinds – The market is steady to weaker. Demand has been strong but recent price hikes are starting to have an effect. With price levels up 28% over 2024’s opening price, demand is starting to slow down a bit. Trade levels on 73% and 81% grinds were pressured lower over the last week.

Loins – The market is steady. Retail and foodservice business demand has settled into a consistent pattern over the last few weeks. Supply varies by packer on choice and select grades. Market levels are holding even.

Rounds – The market is steady to weaker. The category was bullish in early January, flatlined for a week, and inched lower the last two weeks. Supply varies by packer. Market values are being tested lower.

Chucks – The market is steady to weaker. Retail demand and feature business has slowed considerably over the last two weeks. Supply varies by packer. Trade levels on chucks and clods have soft undertones.

Ribs – The market is steady. Demand has picked up over the past few weeks. With very little feature activity, volume is hand to mouth on a weekly basis. Availability varies greatly by packer and grade level. After setting record highs in December, market levels moved lower in January and have stabilized.

PORK

The market is mixed. Total pork production for last week was up 4.1% versus the prior week and down 3.9% compared to the same week last year. The total headcount for last week was 2,574,000 compared to 2,702,000 for the same week last year. Live weights for last week were even at 0 lbs. compared to the prior week and up 1 lb. versus the same week last year. Current demand is fairly strong to start 2025. Consumers are gravitating to pork due to price and availability. The pork cutout to start calendar 2025 was the highest level to start a year since 2013. Activity on loins, butts, and value-added ribs is active enough to keep supply clearing on a weekly basis. Since the port strike was averted, export demand has resumed to traditional levels. On the supply side, 2024 production was up 1.1% from 2023 levels. Based on the most recent WASDE report, supply for 2025 is expected to rise 1.9%. Breeding efficiency in 2024 hit a record high for pigs per litter. Lean hog futures for February and April continue to be somewhat bullish. Market values in the key categories are mostly stable and holding within established ranges.

Bellies – The market is steady to firmer. Demand from retail and foodservice is steady with seasonal demand patterns ready to get stronger. Supply is tight and limited on the spot market. Primal belly values have strong overtones.

Hams – The market is steady to firmer. Demand was slow to start the year, but that was expected. Further processor business is picking up to support the Easter Holiday. Export demand remains unsettled as potential tariffs could be imposed by other countries. Supply has tightened a bit. Market levels on green hams are trading at the high end of the range.

Loins – The market is steady. Demand for bone-in product is strong due to retail features. Boneless loins are somewhat mixed due to soft demand from the export channel. Supply is available. Market levels on bone-in and boneless are mostly flat.

Butts – The market is steady to weaker. Domestic demand from the retail channel is fair. Foodservice volume on boneless butts is barely steady. Export demand and tariff issues continue to be topics of discussion. Trade levels have soft undertones.

Ribs – The market is steady. Buying activity has picked up due to Super Bowl features in early February. Supply varies by packer and plant. The market on spareribs, St. Louis Ribs, and back ribs is mostly firm.

CHICKEN

The market is mixed. The total headcount for last week ending 1/25/2025 was 159,562,000 as compared to 166,700,000 for the same week last year. The average weight for last week was 6.98 lbs. as compared to 7.19 lbs. for the same week last year. Demand in calendar 2025 appears to be strong across the complex. Normal plant hours are being reported, and more trading activity is being noted. Most categories are reported to be a full steady or trading at the higher end of established ranges. Demand is robust since chicken is an affordable protein for the consumer. With demand fully intact, market levels continue to hold firm across the key categories with jumbo boneless leading the charge. Export demand to the Pacific Rim is reported to be good. The categories of breast meat, tenderloins, and wings remain in balance while WOGS are barely steady. The supply side is improving gradually with weekly slaughter numbers becoming more consistent. With some instances of HPAI being reported, some export restrictions have taken effect. Market values are well supported at the current time.

WOGS – The market is steady to weaker. Retail deli business and fast-food demand slowed down in January and continued to be sluggish. Supply on the premium sizes is available with some spot loads being offered. Market levels are inching lower.

Tenders – The market is steady. Demand from foodservice and further processors is reported to be very good. Supply is in balance with demand on all sizes. The market is firm on select and jumbo product.

Boneless Breast – The market is steady to firmer. Retail and food service demand is adequate to keep all sizes clearing on a weekly basis. QSR sandwich promotions are more common, and volume is picking up on jumbo boneless. Supply is available, but tight on jumbo product. The market on jumbo moved higher last week while the smaller sizes are flat.

Leg Quarters and Thighs – The market is unsettled. Domestic demand for leg quarters and thigh meat is moderate. Export business for back-half parts is weak and future business could be uncertain. Supply is available and varies by plant. Market levels on back-half parts and dark meat have soft undertones.

Wings – The market is steady. The Super Bowl kicks off this weekend and foodservice demand is strong. Supply is available but limited. The market on all sizes is firm at the current time.

TURKEY

The market is steady to firmer. The total headcount for last week ending 1/25/2025 was 2,815,000 as compared to 3,779,000 for the same week last year. The average weight for last week was 31.40 lbs. as compared to 32.35 lbs. for the same week last year. With compounded year-over-year reductions in hatchery and headcounts, availability on whole birds and bone-in parts is tight. With instances of HPAI popping up, current and future supply remains a concern of the industry. Demand for parts is moderate while demand for boneless breast meat continues to rise by the week. Business on whole birds is hit and miss as industry participants are testing the waters on future holiday demand. Market levels continue to move higher on breast meat while parts are holding even.

Whole Birds – The market is steady. With the booking season underway, demand trends for calendar 2025 are uncertain. Supply is being challenged by recent HPAI news. Market levels are being tested higher and lower as customers put forth their volume estimates for the upcoming year.

Breast Meat – The market is steady to firmer. Demand from retail deli and foodservice continues to be strong. As further processors replenish finished inventory, supply has tightened up considerably. Market levels have been moving higher.

Wings – The market is steady to firmer. Export business on whole wings is fair and domestic volume on two-joint wings is adequate. Supply is available and varies by plant. The market moved higher on Tom size wings.

Drums and Thigh Meat – The market is steady to firmer. Export business for drums is moderate to good. Domestic demand for thigh meat is on the rise due to foodservice demand. Supply is tight on parts and thigh meat. The market on drums is flat while thigh meat has been pressured upward.

SEAFOOD

White Shrimp – The market is firmer. Freshwater shrimp values, both easy peel and head-on, continue to strengthen amid increases in prices overseas.

Black Tiger Shrimp – The market is steady. Demand is moderate to good and pricing levels are holding firm. Availability is tight on the premium sizes.

Gulf Shrimp – The market is unsettled. There are reports of a wide range of offerings while supplies are barely adequate to adequate.

North American Lobster Tails – The market is steady and mostly unchanged. The bulk of trading continues to occur within previously established levels.

Salmon – The market is unsettled. Farmed salmon is unsettled with pricing influenced by sellers’ supply positions. There are reports of offers above and below the current range. Wild salmon demand is moderate to firmer. West coast whole fish remains unquoted due to inadequate supply. Europe is reporting a softer market due to fully adequate supplies and moderate demand. Chilean whole fish market is softer with adequate supply with moderate demand.

Cod – The market is steady and mostly unchanged. There is a steady to firm undertone in the market. Demand is fair at the current time.

Flounder – The market is steady and mostly unchanged.

Haddock – The market is steady and mostly unchanged.

Pollock – The market is steady. Supplies are adequate with moderate demand.

Tilapia – The market is steady and mostly unchanged.

Swai – The market is steady and mostly unchanged.

DAIRY

Cheese
The market is mixed.  The CME Block market was mixed as the week progressed. The CME Barrel market moved firmer as the week progressed. Both markets trended weaker than the prior week.

Special Note: The USDA has released their final ruling announcing changes to the Federal Milk Marketing Order System. As part of these changes, the Barrel Market will be eliminated from pricing effective June 1st, 2025. The final rule eliminates barrels from the Dairy Products Mandatory Reporting Program and will rely solely on the 40-pound block cheddar cheese price to determine the monthly average cheese prices.

Cheese production is trending from steady to stronger across the country. In the East, cheese processors note stable cheese production even though milk availability is snug. In the Northeast, cheese processing is reported to be stable, despite the tight availability of milk supplies. According to the USDA, cheese is moving in the market, and demand is slowly strengthening in both the retail and food service sectors. Italian style cheese makers note that except for mozzarella, demand is strong. In the Central region, milk availability remains in balance. Some cheesemakers in the region note that bottlers are continuing to pull milk loads from cheese manufacturing, as retail and school demand is strong. In the West, cheese production schedules are noted as steady. While bottling demand in the region is strong, milk production is also noted to be strengthening week by week. According to the USDA’s latest report, contractual demand for cheese loads is steady and spot demand is mixed. Some contacts in the industry convey tight spot load availability of domestic and foreign type cheeses. Demand for cheese loads from domestic and international buyers is steady. Cheese markets are steady to slightly bullish.

Milk production in Europe is mixed. Concerns linger over herd diseases, though improvements are being seen at the farm level. Cheese production schedules are noted to be steady to strong. Foreign type cheese demand is strong for the retail sector and continues to strengthen week over week. Stakeholders report cheese prices as stable, according to the USDA’s latest report. Export demand is noted as stronger.

BUTTER

The market is weaker. The butter market moved weaker as the week progressed and trended weaker than the prior week. Cream remains widely available across much of the county. Milkfat levels are reported as strong which is keeping churns full. Most butter makers note a busy churning schedule and are content with current inventories. In the East, demand is steady in the retail sector but is light for foodservice. In the Central region, butter producers indicate that demand is strengthening and within seasonal expectations. Cream handlers in the Upper Midwest note that their region is one of the most cream-laden areas in the country, according to the USDA’s latest report. Plant managers in the Central region note they are running heavy amounts of cream through churns to build inventories for spring needs. In the West, butter makers note ample amounts of cream are working their way through churns. Demand in the region varies from moderate to strong. Unsalted butter spot loads are noted to be tighter than salted butter spot loads. Butter demand is noted as being overall moderate to strong. The retail sector’s demand for butter is reported as steady while foodservice demand is light.

EGGS

The market is steady to firmer. Retail demand is reported to be strong with large-scale grocers continuing to move the most volume due to competitive prices well below open market wholesale costs. Independent and regional chains remain at the mercy of the open market, where pricing pressure has forced many to increase shelf prices putting a cap on demand. Demand for the distribution and food service channels is mixed. The distribution segment appears to be in a holding pattern when considering wholesale activity. Most continue to work with thin inventories and are purchasing on an as needed basis. 

Market levels are higher for medium and large sizes. National weekly reports show shell egg inventory up 1.3% and breaking stock inventory down 4.5% over last week.

Demand in the egg products category is firmer. Demand for yolks is firmer as food manufacturing channels regain momentum. With the majority of the nation’s shell egg supply directed toward the retail sector, processors in need of additional raw material are increasingly turning to liquid product. Demand for liquid whites is firmer for similar reasons to the liquid yolk market. The yolks and dried markets are steady to firmer as the liquid market sees heightened activity.

FLUID MILK

The market is steady. Milk production is noted as mixed throughout the country. Component levels are noted as strong across the U.S. Milk output in the East is increasing and is expected to continue that trend in the coming weeks. Northeast milk production is steady month over month and up slightly from this time last year. Milk production in the Southeast is mixed as year over year volumes are slightly down. In the Central region, milk outputs are seasonally stable. In California, milk production is trending higher week after week though the year over year comparison shows production is down. Plant downtime is also contributing to milk production being down in certain areas in the region. Milk production in New Mexico and Arizona is seasonally stronger. In the Pacific Northwest, farm level outputs are reported as steady to stronger. Processors note milk volumes are meeting the needs of production schedules in the region.

In addition to pulling milk loads from Class III manufacturing, bottlers are noted to be receiving steady milk loads in all regions. There is strong Class I demand coming from schools and institutions as well as from the retail sector. Class I needs are keeping milk availability slightly snug. According to the USDA’s latest report, contacts note milkfat is holding at record levels. Milkfat components have kept butter churns busy with ample amounts of cream. Cheesemakers note balanced milk availability. Class II and IIII manufacturing is steady and expected to pick up steam in the coming weeks. Cream availability is expected to stay strong through the winter season. Condensed skim milk demand is steady. Class I demand is strong. Class II, III and IV demand is steady. Cream multiples were unchanged this week.

OIL

Futures traded mixed this week as the market was driven by headlines of tariffs and South American yield.  The start of the week had CBOT Soybeans March contracts reaching a 4-month high, the largest since late July.  South American yields are projecting to deliver a record crop for 2025 if weather improves to provide relief to Argentina’s drought.

Canola Oil futures were mixed this week. With the US and Canada delaying tariffs for 30 days, pricing heavily fluctuated this week.  Biofuel credit is also causing some uncertainty in the market as the refiners are holding off on issuing credit to China for biofuel.   

Palm Oil futures were firmer this week as flooding concerns and approaching holidays support the market.  Markets are fluctuating between tightness and looseness going into Q2 where the Palm resupply could pick up due to the South American new crop availability.

COCOA

The cocoa market is unsettled. Rising costs of cocoa are expected to increase the financial burden on chocolate producers and consumers. Supply issues for cocoa have been exacerbated by long lasting structural problems within the industry as seen in crop diseases and low wages paid to farmers. Cocoa trees take years to mature and produce pods, therefore recently planted crops will take years to produce a yield. Potential price volatility is expected due to financial pressure on this market. Price increases on cocoa and any products produced with cocoa should be expected throughout the year.

COFFEE

The coffee market is unsettled. Coffee prices hit a new high this week after tariffs threatened rattled nerves in the coffee market. Columbia is the third largest coffee-producing country in the world behind Brazil and Vietnam. Coffee prices are expected to continue soaring due to adverse weather in both Brazil and Vietnam. Drought and higher temperatures in Brazil during the fruit development and filling period caused Arabica and Robusta yields to fall below initial projections. Price increases on coffee should be expected to continue throughout 2025.

HONEY

The honey market is mixed. Concerns over tariffs threatened by the new administration against Mexico, Canada and the EU could result in price increases and tighten the overall supply of honey. According to Statistics Canada’s December report, Canadian honey production was down 18% in 2024, despite an increase in both beekeepers and hives. In India, the Minimum Export Price (MEP) imposed by the government for honey has been extended through 2025. Organic honey from Brazil is expected to be tight through mid-2025 as price increases and logistics challenges plague the market.

IMPORTS

Skipjack prices are firming up due to poor catches in the Western Pacific. Prices are expected to stay firm for February.

Yellowfin catch is low in Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines. The current catch ratio when caught alongside skipjack is reported to be anywhere from 5-10%.   Low supply is expected to continue through February.

Tongol catches are limited due to heavy rains in Asia, making fishing difficult. Packers expect improvement in February with better weather and the start of the catching season.

Albacore prices remain low due to weak demand. Some packers still hold excess stock and are selling at aggressive prices.

SUGAR

The sugar market is mixed. According to the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the 2024/25 sugar ratio was increased from the prior month. Beginning stocks of beet sugar and imports are being reported.

Cane sugar production in the U.S. is unchanged from last month as Florida and Louisiana did not report any changes to output.

Beet sugar production is raised but is lower than forecasted. Beet Sucrose Recovery has increased due to higher yields than previously forecasted.

Mexico’s 2024/25 forecasts are unchanged as the increase in sugar headed to the United States is offset by a decrease to other countries.

WHEAT

The wheat market is mixed. According to the USDA’s January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat in January was for slightly larger supplies and domestic use, unchanged exports, and marginally higher ending stocks. This increase is contrary to the long-term trend seen in winter wheat acreage declines in favor of corn and soybeans. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are raised up by 15% from last year. The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for slightly larger supplies, lower consumption, and reduced trade.

**Graphs represent data for the week ending February 7, 2025**