BEEF

The market is mixed. Total beef production for last week was up 2.6% versus the prior week and up 1.6% compared to the same week last year. Year to date, total production is down 0.7% compared to the same period last year. The total headcount for last week was 623,000 as compared to 635,000 for the same week last year. Year to date, the total headcount is 25.74 million head, which is down 3.8% from last year. Live weights for last week were up 2 lbs. versus the prior week and up 36 lbs. from the same week last year. The industry is going through an adjustment where packers are producing more middle meats to support holiday demand. With increased production on middle meats, a surplus of end meats is being pushed into the marketplace. Thus, a correction in trade levels on a per category basis is starting to take effect. Slaughter rates continue to be lower than normal due to higher live cattle prices. The beef cutout is mixed as middle meats are trending higher and end meats are being pressured lower. Beef demand continues to be moderate to good with some categories adjusting for seasonal demand. Availability on select product is very tight and sellers continue to hold firm. Cattle futures continue to trade at the lower end of the spectrum and have bearish undertones at the current time. Live weights per animal continue to outpace last year which is creating more pounds per carcass and helping with availability on grinds.

Grinds – The market is steady to weaker. Demand is moderate, but the supply side is showing some more availability. With dressed weights near all-time highs, there is more trim meat on the market. Trade levels on 73% and 81% grinds are experiencing downward pressure.

Loins – The market is steady. Demand for choice product has been strong in October and appears to have hit its peak for the time being. With tight supply and formulated tenderloin values strong, trade levels on loins are holding firm.

Rounds – The market is steady to weaker. October demand is fair at best. With packers producing more end meats and looking for feature business, values on rounds and XT insides are being pressured lower.

Chucks – The market is weaker. Retail demand and feature activity is limited. With increased supply over the last week, more chucks and clods are being offered for spot business and promo activity. Trade levels on chucks were testing all-time highs and are now being pushed lower.

Ribs – The market is steady to firmer. Demand from the retail and food service channels remains strong and holiday business is giving added strength to the category. Supply is extremely tight and varies by packer. Trade levels continue to be pressured higher.

PORK The market is steady. Total pork production for last week was down 0.2% versus the prior week and down 0.5% compared to the same week last year. The total headcount for last week was 2,593,000, compared to 2,611,000 for the same week last year. Live weights for last week were even at 0 lbs. compared to the prior week and down 1 lb. versus the same week last year. Domestic demand is well supported by the retail channel with some additional feature activity being noted. Volume on loins and butts continues to be reported as moderate. Export volume is static due to current exchange rates. The pork cutout was showing some weakness in early October but has firmed up over the past few weeks. Increased production has the potential of putting downward pressure on the market, but that remains to be seen. From a statistical point of view, production is up year over year and above the 5-year average. Lean hog futures are slightly on the rise and the month of December has achieved the highest level since April. Supply in the United States is trending to be good throughout the end of 2024 as the pig crop statistics outpace last year. Market values in the key categories are stable but have some soft undertones.

Bellies – The market is steady to firmer. Domestic demand from the retail and food service channels has shown gradual improvement over the last month. With tightened supply, primal belly values have been inching higher since mid-September.

Hams – The market is steady to firmer. Domestic demand is vibrant as customers begin to take possession of holiday hams. Export business to Mexico is starting to show some vibrance. Supply is available. Market levels are firm with some premiums being noted.

Loins – The market is steady to weaker. Retail business is moderate, but soft undertones are kicking in, which is seasonally expected. Some excess bone-in product is being noted on the spot market. Market levels are experiencing some downward pressure.

Butts – The market is steady. Domestic demand has picked up with support from the retail channel. Food service volume for boneless product is moderate to good. Supply varies by packer. Trade levels seem to have found a floor for the time being.

Ribs – The market is mixed. Buyers are taking a week-to-week approach to their purchases. Supply varies by packer and producing plant. The market on spareribs is strong while St. Louis ribs and back ribs are being pressured lower.

CHICKEN

The market is steady. The total headcount for the week ending 10/26/2024 was 167,545,000 as compared to 169,457,000 for the same week last year. The average weight for last week was 6.68 lbs. as compared to 6.60 lbs. for the same week last year. Demand for chicken has firmed up over the last couple of weeks. With other proteins testing all-time high pricing for this time of year, chicken is perceived as affordable by the American consumer. Export demand was interrupted by the short-lived port strike but is now showing some renewed vigor. The categories of breast meat, tenderloins, and wings are showing firmness in the marketplace. WOGS and chunk meat are reported to have consistent demand and are placed easily. The supply side is still recovering from the recent hurricanes with 107 poultry farms in Georgia sustaining damage. Market values are mostly flat at the current time.

WOGS – The market is steady. Fast-food and retail deli business is vibrant enough to keep the premium and heavy sizes sold up. Supply is in balance with demand. Market levels are flat.

Tenders – The market is steady. Food service and QSR demand experienced a downward correction over the last month. There is some excess on jumbo product. The market is holding even on select and jumbo sizes.

Boneless Breast – The market is steady. Retail and food service demand was sluggish to start the month but appears to have gotten back on track. The market is moving sideways on all sizes.

Leg Quarters and Thighs – The market is steady. Domestic demand is moderate, and export shipments are getting back on track. Supply is available and varies by plant. Market levels are holding firm.

Wings – The market is steady. Food service demand has shown some vibrance over the last couple of weeks. Supply is available. The market has firmed up on all sizes.

TURKEY The market is steady. The total headcount for the week ending 10/26/2024 was 4,344,000 as compared to 4,690,000 for the same week last year. The average weight for last week was 30.18 lbs. as compared to 29.66 lbs. for the same week last year. The turkey category is showing improvement as orders for fresh whole birds and frozen bone-in breasts begin to ship. Year-to-date slaughter is at its lowest point in the last 10 years and inventory on whole birds from calendar 2023 continues to hit the marketplace. Suppliers with aged inventory are willing to discount while suppliers with new inventory are holding firm. Demand for breast meat and back-half parts has picked up lately. With outdoor temperatures dropping in the Fall months, bird migrations will soon begin and HPAI may become a topic of concern.

Whole Birds – The market is steady. Demand has picked up on fresh orders for the holidays and some added business on bone-in breasts. Inventory from 2023 is still being reported. Depending on the age of the inventory, market levels vary greatly.

Breast Meat – The market is steady to firmer. Retail, food service, and further processor demand is showing some vibrance. Frozen and fresh supplies are being reported as tight. Market levels have gotten a small uptick over the last week.

Wings – The market is steady. Export business on whole wings has been sluggish over the last month, which caused suppliers to push two-joint wings domestically. Supply is available and some plants are showing some excess. The market has an unsettled tone.

Drums and Thigh Meat – The market is steady. Export business for drums remains adequate. Thigh meat is well supported by retail grinds in the grocery channel. Supply is in balance with demand. The market is flat.

SEAFOOD

Shrimp – The market is unsettled. The market for imported farm-raised product and black tiger shrimp has flat-lined recently. Prices are mixed due to the short-lived port strike and storms that hit the Southeast.

Crab – The market is steady. The snow crab market is holding firm on all types and sizes at the current time. Buyers have been keeping a tight assessment of their inventory position before making additional purchases.

Lobster – The market is steady. The market for lobster remains strong. North American lobster is mostly unchanged while the warm water tail market appears to have hit a ceiling after the recent premiums.

Salmon – The market is steady. Farmed salmon is holding within established trading ranges with adequate supplies being reported from various regions of the world. Wild salmon demand is fair at best. With full supply, market values are trying to hold even.

Cod – The market is steady and mostly unchanged. There is a steady to firm undertone in the market. Demand is fair at the current time.

Flounder – The market is steady and mostly unchanged.

Haddock – The market is steady and mostly unchanged.

Pollock – The market is steady. Supplies are adequate with moderate demand.

Tilapia – The market is steady to firmer. The market has shown some recent strength due to the typhoon damage in China and Vietnam. Supplies are in balance with demand.

Swai – The market is unsettled. Supplies are fully adequate while demand is consistent.

Scallops – The market is steady to firmer. Domestic demand is fair with buyers having to deal with limited availability. Supplies are light with pricing premiums being noted on most sizes from Japan and Canada alike.

DAIRY

Cheese
The market is mixed. The CME Block market moved weaker as we progressed through the week. The CME Barrel market was mixed as we moved through the week. Both markets trended weaker than the prior week. Cheese production is mixed through the country. In the East, cheesemakers note running steady production schedules and inventories are reported to be comfortable. Regional milk availability has not been adequate to meet local processing needs, and some contacts have shared they are bringing in loads of milk from the West. Cheese plant managers in the Mid-Atlantic are also receiving fluid milk from the West, indicating the limitations of regional milk accessibility. Cheesemakers in the Central region note milk availability is steady. Plant managers continue to relay downtime for scheduled maintenance and due to this, cheese production schedules are mixed. Midwestern cheesemakers are noting that they are adding to orders with some saying they are oversold. Several cheesemakers note the customer inquiries are growing though some say this is in line with seasonal expectations. In the West, cheese production ranges from steady to stronger and manufacturing needs are generally being met. Cheese production paces are noted as steady to strong. Some cheesemakers convey that retail shredded cheese has been strong this quarter. Demand for mozzarella from the foodservice sector is weak while cheddar demand is steady to stronger. Retail and food service demand is mixed. Spot milk load availability is limited depending on the region. Domestic demand is reported as steady for most varieties of cheeses. Domestic prices remain competitive with international prices. Export demand is reported to be steady.

European milk production is mixed. Milk production varies throughout Europe. Eastern Europe is experiencing critical drought conditions, though some seasonal precipitation is alleviating pockets of the region. European milk production leads have shrunk recently. European cheese production is reported to be steady. Demand from the retail sector for European varietal cheese is steady to strong. Grated cheese sales are expected to strengthen as temperatures cool. Demand from the foodservice sector is steady. Southern European demand is above typical seasonal expectations. Spot loads remain tight. Market prices are reported to be firming. Export demand is mixed with competition from international prices.

BUTTER

The market is firmer. The butter market moved firmer as the week progressed and trended firmer than the prior week. Cream volumes are widely available throughout the country and butter inventories are meeting seasonal needs. Butter churning paces are noted as strong across the country and busier than normal for this time of year. Scheduled maintenance projects and plant downtime are being seen across all regions. In the East, retail butter demand is steady to weaker as most retail orders have been fulfilled. Spot loads of cream are readily available in the Northeast. In the Central region, demand is steady to strong. Some plants in the Central region are off for scheduled downtime for parts of a day or multiple days a week, while others are dealing with unexpected maintenance issues. Operators whose plants are in service convey they are running busier than normal churning schedules this time of year. Butter production varies from steady to strong in the West for retail and bulk butter production lines. According to the USDA’s latest report, butter demand is steady to weaker as buyers are limiting purchasing to supply immediate needs. Several contacts conveyed that seasonal retail orders have been largely fulfilled at this point in the season. Some manufacturers are running heavier production paces due to churn maintenance projects expected to begin in November. Some producers are selling loads of excess cream rather than putting it into churns. According to the USDA, cream contracts for next year being worked on and reported to be mixed based on pricing variances seen this year. Retail and food service orders are expected to be steady throughout the holiday season. Butter demand is steady to increasing for retail needs. Domestic demand is mostly steady while domestic prices continue to be competitive with international prices. Export demand is steady.

EGGS

The market is steady to firmer. Retail demand remains good to very good. Large-scale grocers continue to advertise competitive everyday pricing, while regional and independent chains have increased prices in response to the wholesale market. Demand in the distribution and food service channels has slowed as buyers keep inventories tighter. Similar to the food service channels, demand from Canada has slowed and purchases have been minimal due to elevated prices.

Market levels are moving higher on medium sizes and large sizes. National weekly reports show shell egg inventory up 1.9% and breaking stock inventory down 4.4% over last week.

Demand in the egg products category is mixed. Demand for yolks continues to be strong. However, demand for liquid whites remains weak, which has led to an excess supply in the market. The yolks and dried markets are steady to firmer as the liquid market sees heightened activity.

FLUID MILK

The market is mixed. Milk production trends vary throughout the country. Farm level milk production in the East is seasonally steady and Class I demands remain strong. Plant managers in the East are reporting transportation obstacles continue to hinder processing. Spot loads of milk for Mid-Western regions are being pulled from as far as contacts in the West. Milk volumes in the Central region are slowly rising as cooler temperatures bring comfortable conditions to cows in this region. According to the USDA’s latest report, feed conditions are noted as healthy and abundant in the Central region. Farmers in this region are continually discussing the benefits of expansion efforts on the farm level. Plant maintenance and downtime has slowed milk processing for all classes in the East and Central regions. California continues to see a decrease in overall output while the remainder of the Western region reports fluid milk production is steady. Cream availability remains ample across much of the nation. According to the USDA, cream cheese processing is reported to be somewhat static against seasonal terms. Cream tightness is not expected in the near-term. Class I bottling orders remain strong across the country. Demand for milk in all other classes is reported to be steady.

SOY OIL

The market remains firmer and in a correction phase as it approaches closer to the 200-day moving average, the threshold where it has seen resistance over the last month. The USDA reports show upcoming higher than expected soybean acreage and yield. Despite recent activity, there is still a bearish undertone on futures, and it is keeping the market lower than expected.

COCOA

The cocoa market is unsettled. Due to weather and political conditions in growing regions, price increases and potential allocations are expected as we progress through the year.

HONEY

The honey market is steady. Honey from California is available in strong quantities. Organic honey from Brazil is expected to be tight through mid-2025 as price increases and logistics challenges plague the market. In India, the honey season is winding down, though honey is readily available. The Government Minimum Export Price program is expected to be renewed. Continued turbulence in the Red Sea is contributing to additional freight surcharges on shipments. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, the petition from Vietnam to be considered a market economy was rejected and existing anti-dumping rates remain in place. Honey in the retail segment is reported to have grown by 7.8% through early September 2024. Consumer demand for honey in both the retail and foodservice segments are reported as strong.

SUGAR

The sugar market is mixed. According to the USDA, the U.S. sugar supply has been decreased due to diminished production. Beet sugar is reported to have increased production by 185,000 tons for 2024/25. The Mexico sugar supply is expecting an increase in imports for consumption at or around 38,000 metric tons, though exports under license to the United States are unchanged from last month.

WHEAT

The wheat market is mixed. Winter wheat planting is 80% completed in the U.S. coming in slightly behind last year and 4% behind the five-year average. Recent rainfall and forecasts in the central & southern plains helped lower prices. The dry spell in this region has not been conducive to winter wheat planting and rain in the forecast will further develop newly planted crops. Expectations for Russia’s wheat exports were revised for October and if that comes to fruition would be a 7.8% month over month decline. A continued concern for traders is the weather issues and export restrictions in Russia. According to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates latest report from the USDA, the global wheat outlook for 2024-25 is for reduced supplies, consumption, and trade. Projected 2024/25 global ending stocks were raised by half a million tons but are still the lowest since 2015/16.

IMPORTS

The United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced the final Section 301 tariff increases on imports from China, following its original proposal in May 2024. This covers a wide array of products, including aluminum and certain critical minerals imported from China. Beginning back on September 27th, 2024, these products faced increased tariff rates ranging between 25% and 100%. More increases are pending heading into the new year. Tariffs on medical gloves will increase to 50%, with an expected start date on January 1st, 2025.

**Graphs represent data for the week ending October 25, 2024**