BEEF

The market is mixed. Total beef production for last week was down 4.3% versus the prior week and down 2.9% compared to the same week last year. Year to date, total production has gone down 1.7% compared to the same period last year. The total headcount for last week was 564,000, as compared to 598,000 for the same week last year. Year to date, the total headcount is 8.44 million head, which is down 5.4% from last year. Live weights for last week were up 3 lb. versus the prior week and are up 32 lbs. from the same week last year. Live cattle futures continue to rise in multiple trading sessions for the months of April, May, and June. Futures for June and August may have strong undertones but are somewhat unsettled. Industry participants are wondering if the market is reaching an overbought situation. The average weekly slaughter count is down 3.2% compared to last year and down 8.5% compared to the 5-year YTD weekly average. Boneless beef in cold storage is reported to be at the lowest level in 10 years. Shortages continue to be reported.  With summer seasonality kicking in, product availability will be a topic of concern. Recent tariff implementation has put the industry in an unsettled situation. Most buyers are taking a wait and see approach before making large commitments. Beef demand for early April is light and carcass cutout values are being pressured lower. With the high costs of beef primals, the spread between choice and select grades is narrow. Market levels remain well supported as the industry eners prime seasonality.

Grinds – The market is steady. Demand from retail is fair at best. Foodservice demand is static due to the lack of QSR promotions in April. Imported trim from Australia and Brazil has been on the rise in recent months. Trade levels on 73% and 81% grinds are mostly flat.

Loins – The market is unsettled. Retail and foodservice volume is moderate for the month of April due to the lack of features. Supply varies by packer and is tight on choice and select grades. Market levels are mixed depending on the supplier.

Rounds – The market is steady to weaker. Demand for inside cuts has been a little soft but that is expected during the Lenten Season. Availability on insides varies by packer. Market values have been soft in early April.

Chucks – The market is steady to weaker. Business from the retail and foodservice channels is soft. Some packers are using chucks and clods in grinding operations which has helped overall demand. Supply varies by packer and available grade. Trade levels on chucks and clods have been inching lower.

Ribs – The market is steady to firmer. Domestic demand is good, and volume tends to rise after the Easter Holiday. Buying patterns for late April and early May are showing some strength. Availability is extremely tight on choice and select product. Market levels are a full steady.

PORK

The market is unsettled. Total pork production for last week was down 0.7% versus the prior week and up 0.6% compared to the same week last year. The total headcount for last week was 2,492,000 compared to 2,481,000 for the same week last year. Live weights for last week were even at 0 lbs. compared to the prior week and even at 0 lbs. versus the same week last year. Current demand is moderate and expected to show rapid improvement after the Easter Holiday. The pork cutout has shown some weakness in April. Based on historical trends, the cutout tends to rise as we near the month of May. With the tight supply of beef, retailers have been using pork more commonly in their promotional features. The implementation of tariffs has created some bearish undertones. With the United States exporting about 25% of its pork production, tariffs are being watched by suppliers and foreign countries alike. Lean hog futures for the month of June posted strong gains and broke through the 50-day moving average. Market values on loins, butts, and ribs are holding within established ranges as consumer demand is expected to pick up.

Bellies – The market is unsettled. Demand from retail is moderate and QSR business remains steady. Supply is available on the sport market. Primal belly values continue to trade in a wide range.

Hams – The market is steady. Domestic demand is strong with Easter Holiday features. Further processors continue to ramp up production of deli meats. Export demand to Mexico has been robust over the last week. Supply is available. Market levels are holding within established ranges.

Loins – The market is steady. Demand for bone-in product is strong with retail features scheduled in late April. Boneless loin volume may be affected with tariffs being imposed. Supply is available. Market on bone-in and boneless loins is flat.

Butts – The market is steady. Demand from retail and foodservice is good for this time of year. Export demand to the Pacific Rim is moderate but tariff news could change the landscape at a moment’s notice. Trade levels have firmed up over the last week.

Ribs – The market is steady. April demand is meeting industry expectations. Freezer supplies for the summer grilling season are reported to be adequate. Supply varies by packer and plant. The market on spareribs, St. Louis Ribs, and back ribs is stable.

CHICKEN

The market is firmer. The total headcount for the week ending 4/12/2025 was 167,206,000 as compared to 162,156,000 for the same week last year. The average weight for last week was 6.48 lbs. as compared to 6.44 lbs. for the same week last year. Demand for chicken continues to show strength both domestically and abroad. As costs for other proteins have risen, grocers and fast-food outlets are turning to boneless breasts and tenderloins as their feature items. Export demand to the Pacific Rim is reported to be fair for the time being. Breast meat, tenderloins, and thigh meat continue to show strength. On the flip side, wing demand has been declining for about two months. Slaughter numbers are consistent on a weekly basis but do not keep up with current demand patterns. Hatchability is a topic of concern and additional supply may not be attainable until later in calendar 2025. Demand is extremely vibrant, and market levels continue to be pressured higher across many categories.

WOGS – The market is steady. Retail deli and fast-food business is static, which is expected during a holiday week. Supply is tight on the premium sizes as well as cutting stock WOGS. Market levels are flat.

Tenders – The market is steady to firmer. Foodservice and QSR business is strong due to spring promotions. With the recent uptick in volume for jumbo tenders, custom portioning is extremely robust. Supply is tight on select and jumbo product. The market on select tenders is flat while jumbo product is inching higher.

Boneless Breast – The market is firmer. Retail and foodservice demand is very strong and due to feature activity from both channels. With higher price points on competing proteins, boneless breast is the go-to feature item. Supply is extremely tight. The market on medium and jumbo sizes has been rising on a daily basis.

Leg Quarters and Thighs – The market is steady to firmer. Domestic demand for leg quarters is static, but thigh meat is trending strong in the foodservice channel. Export business on whole legs has picked up in recent weeks. Supply is available and varies by plant. Market levels on back-half parts are flat while boneless thigh meat is moving higher.

Wings – The market is steady to weaker. Demand from the foodservice channel is weak and the category continues to struggle. Higher menu costs have limited overall volume in the foodservice channel. Supply is available with some excess being shown. The market continues to be tested lower on the spot market.

TURKEY

The market is steady to firmer. The total headcount for the week ending 4/12/2025 was 3,418,000 as compared to 3,849,000 for the same week last year. The average weight for last week was 33.11 lbs. as compared to 31.96 lbs. for the same week last year. Demand from the domestic and export channels is moderate to good. Tight supply and limited slaughter have the category constrained. Recent slaughter data shows the number of turkeys processed year to date is down 10% from last year, which was an all-time record low. With recent news of plant closures, additional supply is not on the horizon anytime soon. Due to limited supply, asking prices are on the rise and shortages are becoming more common. Demand for turkey parts is moderate. Business on boneless breast meat is extremely strong due to a seasonal uptick in the deli business. Market levels on parts, boneless breast, and thigh meat are being pressured higher.

Whole Birds – The market is steady. As the booking season progressed, customer orders came in later than expected. Product availability went from excess to almost sold out in the last couple of months. Some suppliers are even communicating that they are sold out until further notice. Market levels were being pushed higher but have flattened out.

Breast Meat – The market is firmer. Seasonal demand from the retail and foodservice channels is strong. Fresh and frozen supply is scarce on the spot market. Market levels have been on the rise over the last week.

Wings – The market is steady. Export business on whole wings is fair and domestic volume on two-joint wings is adequate. Supply has gotten squeezed by limited slaughter numbers. The market is holding firm.

Drums and Thigh Meat – The market is steady to firmer. Export business for drums is moderate to good. Demand for thigh meat is well supported by retail, foodservice, and further processing. Supply is tight on parts and thigh meat. The market on drums is flat while thigh meat has been pressured upward.

SEAFOOD

White Shrimp – The market is steady to firmer. Demand is moderate and supplies are adequate while maintaining a firm undertone.

Black Tiger Shrimp – The market is firmer. Demand is moderate to good and pricing levels are firmer. Availability is tight on the premium sizes.

Gulf Shrimp – The market is steady to firmer. Supplies are barely adequate to adequate while maintaining a firm undertone. Upward movement has been reported.

North American Lobster Tails – The market is steady to weaker. Tail values continue to decline under sustained pressure, while meat values show a more gradual decrease. These trends reflect industry adjustments in preparation for the upcoming season, with sellers actively working to clear the remaining inventories.

Salmon – The market is unsettled. Farmed salmon is unsettled with pricing influenced by sellers’ supply positions. There are reports of offers above and below the current range. Wild salmon demand is moderate to firmer. West coast whole fish remains unquoted due to inadequate supply. Europe is reporting a firmer market. Demand is moderate, while supply ranges from adequate to fully adequate. Chilean whole fish market is unsettled to firmer. Supply is adequate to fully adequate with moderate to fair demand. There are reports of trades occurring above and below the range.

Cod – The market is firmer. There is a steady to firm undertone in the market. Demand has improved, while supplies have tightened.

Flounder – The market is steady and mostly unchanged.

Haddock – The market is firmer. There is a steady to firm undertone in the market. Demand has improved, while supplies have tightened.

Pollock – The market is firmer. Supplies are adequate with moderate demand.

Tilapia – The market is unsettled to firmer.

Swai – The market is steady to firmer.

Scallops – The market is steady to firmer. Supply is barely adequate, particularly for large sizes. Demand remains lackluster. However, there is a firmer undertone in the market.

DAIRY

The market is mixed.  The CME Block market moved firmer as the week progressed. The CME Barrel market was mixed as the week progressed. Both markets trended firmer than the prior week.

Special Note: The USDA has released their final ruling announcing changes to the Federal Milk Marketing Order system. As part of these changes, the Barrel Market will be eliminated from pricing effective June 1st, 2025. The final rule eliminates barrels from the Dairy Products Mandatory Reporting Program and will rely solely on the 40-pound block cheddar cheese price to determine the monthly average cheese prices.

Cheesemakers say demand and sales are growing compared to last year, but sales have slowed when compared to earlier in the year. Production managers note steady to stronger cheese production schedules. As milk is still plentiful, there is ample Spot Class III milk loads available to cheese manufacturers. American style cheese inventories are growing. Some cheesemakers say they are taking advantage of widely available and affordable spot milk volumes and adding to production ahead of upcoming seasonal demand needs. Domestic retail demand varies from steady to lighter. According to the USDA’s most recent report, while retail sales are steady, market uncertainties and slow food service sales are creating headwinds in the marketplace. Domestic food service demand is noted to be light. Demand from international buyers varies from steady to strong.

European milk production is generally strengthening. Some manufacturers note milk intakes are meeting expectations while other intakes are lower than expected. European cheese production is seasonally stronger. Demand for cheese from buyers in southern Europe is stronger. Industry sources note strong foreign type cheese demand in the retail sector and steady foreign type cheese food service demand. Many sellers convey load availability for spot buyers is tighter. Demand from international buyers is steady.

BUTTER

The market is mixed. The butter market was mixed as the week progressed and trended firmer than the prior week. Cream remains widely available across the nation. With ample supplies of cream, some butter makers say they have enough contracted cream to keep their churns running at capacity, according to the USDA’s latest report. Many production managers are running butter churns heavily to build inventories for later seasonal demands. While butter stocks are generally growing, some manufacturers are working to temper their churn rates to manage the amount of butter placed into cold storage. Overall, butter production is steady and strong. Cream demand is stronger from other dairy product manufacturers. Domestic retail demand for butter is lighter to somewhat stronger while foodservice demand is weaker. Bulk butter demand is more subdued. Demand from international buyers is steady.

EGGS

The market is steady. Retail demand is good as shelf prices continue to be adjusted lower with regional and independent grocers. Promotional activity is still limited due to market conditions. Customer orders following Easter are reported to be strong enough to support the market. Foodservice demand remains stable with little change. Buyers continue to limit purchases and manage lean inventories due to recent market uncertainty.

Market levels are flat on medium and large sizes. National weekly reports show shell egg inventory down 5.7% and breaking stock inventory down 7.6% over last week.

Demand in the egg products category is steady. The liquid egg market remains stable with limited activity, while the dried market holds steady. Some processors entertain minor price negotiations, especially for long-term deals, but others maintain or exceed current rates.

FLUID MILK

The market is strong. Milk production across much of the country continues to strengthen toward spring flush levels. That said, some southern regions and parts of California are seeing production levels that indicate the peak is behind them. In the East, seasonal milk production increases continue into the spring season. Varied weather patterns have not had much impact on production in the region. Some contacts in the Northeast note manufacturers are near full capacity in utilizing available milk volumes. According to the USDA’s most recent report, parts of the southeast and Florida are seeing milk production has started off the year on a strong note. In the Central region, milk outputs continue to push higher week over week. Bottlers are steadily taking in milk volumes as the school year winds down. In the Upper Midwest, milk volumes are becoming more available as plants run lighter schedules due to updates and maintenance. In California, milk production is reported to be stronger. That said, some dairy farmers indicate the peak of their seasonally higher milk production has taken place. In the Central Valley, milk volumes are more balanced with production capacities. In the Pacific Northwest and mountain states, farm level milk outputs continue to strengthen. Milk supplies are generally balanced with processing needs. Butter churning remains active, and demand from Class II buyers is steady. Cheesemakers reported more spot milk trading activity this week than in any other week so far this year. As demand increases, ice cream and cream cheese manufacturers continue to pull on available cream supplies. Condensed skim milk availability is strong while demand for this is reported to be stronger. Class I demand is stronger as many educational institutions have finished with spring recesses. Manufacturers indicate milk volumes are more than ample to accommodate production schedules. All other Class demands are steady.

OIL

Soy Oil

CBOT soybean oil market is firm. Markets are trending higher this week with gains mid-week.  Market is closed for the holiday tomorrow.  NOPA Report was published this week with soybean crush and oil stocks lower than expectations.  March soybean crush came in at 194.551M bushels versus market expectations of 197.602.  Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.498B lbs. versus market expectations of 1.617B lbs. The soybean oil stocks figure represented the first decline in six months. US soybean plantings have started, currently at 2% planted compared to 3% last year and in line with the 5-year average. Energy Market strength is providing a bump in the market.

Canola Oil

The Canola market is strong to firmer.   Canola seed futures were up 1.4% on the week, as confirmation that it (and products) is eligible to flow into the US without tariff.   Stats Canada reported 2025 acreage at 21.6 million, lower by 1.7% YoY.  With limited attractive alternatives and inputs already secured, any additional loss potential seems limited.  Confirmation that Canola would be spared from the broad and highly punitive US tariff policy should allow for some relief in the North American vegetable oil trade, though the Chinese 100% tariff on Canola products remains in effect for now.

Palm Oil

The palm oil market has shown a positive trend.  After the initial declaration of 24% and 32% tariffs into Malaysia and Indonesia, President Trump lowered tariffs on all non-retaliating countries to a base 10%, valid for the next 90 days. This change brings some relief on Palm imports into the US but still carries strong uncertainty upon forward market pricing.  Indonesia's targeted increase of biofuel blending from the previous B35 to B40 continues to be challenged, with the Palm Oil / Energy spread widening out on the recent global energy weakness.

COCOA

The cocoa market is unsettled. Rising costs of cocoa are expected to increase the financial burden on chocolate producers and consumers. Supply issues for cocoa have been exacerbated by long lasting structural problems within the industry as seen in crop diseases and low wages paid to farmers. Potential price volatility is expected due to financial pressure on this market. Price increases on cocoa and any products produced with cocoa should be expected throughout the year.

HONEY

The honey market is unsettled. As honey imports comprise 80% of total U.S. consumption, broad pricing actions on honey are likely due global tariffs. The USDA reported domestic honey production dropped 4% in 2024 while the number of bee colonies in the U.S. grew 3% that year. However, a January 2025 survey by Project Apis indicates a winter loss of 62% of colonies. The Honey Integrity Act was recently introduced to Congress and works to create a uniform standard of identifying honey. The Honey Integrity Program will work to detect adulterated honey as well as identify a list of qualifying commercial honey producers in the United States.

DRIED FRUIT & NUT INDUSTRY

The nut markets have faced several weather-related challenges that have impacted production.

Pecans: In Texas, heavy rainfall combined with drought contributed to mixed outcomes for pecan yields and quality. According to the University of Georgia and Land IQ, the crop of Pecans in Georgia, home to some of the oldest orchards, suffered the greatest amount of loss from Hurricane Helene last fall. Sources note it will take 8-10 years to recover this crop. Demand for pecans domestically is robust. Demand internationally is showing significant growth.

Walnuts: The Walnut industry is noting prices have rebounded from historic lows in 2024 with record supply available. Demand for walnuts remains strong domestically due to their health benefits and versatile uses. Global consumption of walnuts continues to rise.

Cashews: The cashew market has seen several supply chain disruptions due to production declines and logistical costs. Demand for cashews remains strong amongst consumers globally.

Almonds: Demand for almonds continues to be strong, with sources noting a 5.7% year over year increase in almond shipments.

Peanuts: The crop in the US for 2024 was reported to be strong. Higher production of peanuts helped to stabilize supply over the past year. Demand is strong but has not outpaced supply.

Coconut: The coconut market is unsettled. Demand from China, Europe and the United States continues to rise. Drought conditions due to El Nino in the Philippines contributed to the quantity and quality of the coconut crop. Additionally, packaging costs and operational disruptions have contributed to record-level prices. Any impact from tariffs could further these issues. Price increases on coconuts and any products produced using coconuts should be expected throughout the year.

Cranberries: The U.S. cranberry crop in 2024 faced several challenges that impacted production. In some growing regions, early frost damaged cranberry blossoms. In Wisconsin, the leading producer of cranberries, drought conditions persisted throughout the growing season. In the Northeast, several heat waves over the summer stressed the plants and reduced the yield. That said, the overall cranberry production in 2024 was 2% higher than the prior year.

COFFEE

The coffee market is unsettled. Coffee prices are expected to continue soaring due to adverse weather in both Brazil and Vietnam. Drought and higher temperatures in Brazil during the fruit development and filling period caused Arabica and Robusta yields to fall below initial projections. Price increases on coffee should be expected to continue throughout 2025.

IMPORTS

Coconut

Worldwide supply of coconut remains tight due to the heavy rains and flooding caused by La Niña. These conditions have caused shortages of raw materials in key producing countries including Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines.

Green Olives

Spain’s drought conditions and labor shortages have caused the crop of Queen olives to suffer again this year. The total harvest yield fell significantly short of the 10-year average.

Harvest for smaller-sized Manzanilla olives was short.  Egypt and Argentina also face a difficult olive crop year, furthering the tightening of the global olive supply.

On the other hand, Greece experienced a favorable crop thanks to periods of rain in the late summer aiding growth.

Overall supply remains short, due to limited stock carryover from last year’s crop and low harvest yields in most olive-producing countries.

Olive Oil

The Extra Virgin Olive Oil market has had a strong rebound in all Mediterranean olive oil-producing countries including Portugal, Spain, Greece, Morocco, and Tunisia.

Spain, the market leader for Extra Virgin Olive Oil, accounts for 45% of global production. They are expected to produce approximately 1.4 million tons of olive oil this year, their largest production since the 2021/2022 season.

SUGAR

The sugar market is mixed. According to the April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the 2024/25 US sugar supply has increased from the prior month.  Increases in imports and beginning supply offset the decrease in production.

This is due to historically high current levels of refined beet and cane sugar that could increase competition for refined domestically produced product.

Mexico’s 2024/25 sugar production is unchanged per Mexico’s National Committee for the Sustainable Development of Sugarcane.

WHEAT

The wheat market is mixed. According to the April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, slightly smaller domestic use, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks. Supplies are raised on higher projected imports with increases for Hard Red Spring, Durum, White and Hard Red Winter wheat. At this level, imports would be the largest since 2017/18. Domestic consumption is forecasted to be lower. Exports are lowered and projected 2024/25 ending stocks are raised 22% above the prior year. The 2024/25 global wheat outlook this month is for smaller supplies, consumption, and exports in addition to larger ending stocks. Supplies are reduced for Saudi Arabia and the EU. World consumption is forecasted to be lowered based on lower food, seed and industrial use in India and China. Lowered export forecasts for Russia, Australia and the EU are partially offset by increases from Canada and the Ukraine. Exports for 2024/25 are expected to be 7% lower than the previous year. Global stocks for 2024/25 are 3% lower than previous year and the lowest since 2015/16, according to the USDA.

**Graphs represent data for the week ending April 11, 2025**